Facing a New Problem, the US Adjusts Its Middle East Policies

Published in Guangming Online
(China) on 16 February 2013
by Tian Wenlin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Elizabeth Cao. Edited by .

Edited by Rachel Smith

After bidding farewell to "model worker" Hillary Clinton, Americans quickly realized her successor, John Kerry, is even busier than she was. On Feb. 3, newly-appointed Kerry did not wait to make a phone call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, showing that the United States is committed to promoting peace in the Middle East. Some analysts say that from looking at Kerry's schedule, it is clear that he is more interested in the Middle East than the Asia-Pacific region and wonder whether or not the United States will do more harm than good in the region.

The United States is one of the most important influences on the Middle East. Before some of the upheaval in the Middle East, the United States was trying to manipulate some things going on in the region. But the Arab Spring in 2011 apparently disrupted the plans of the United States and now it is left with a dilemma. On one hand, the unprecedented turmoil in the Middle East provides a rare opportunity for the United States to reshape order in the region. On the other hand, the Arab Spring shook up and collapsed many pro-Western regimes, causing America's traditional policies in the region to fail and requiring much effort on the United States' part to fix.

This kind of an interference has manifested in two aspects. On one hand, some more stable, pro-West countries such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain did not see any power shifts. Those in more hopeless situations like Egypt and Yemen eventually succumbed to the protesters. On the other hand, the radical anti-West countries, such as Syria and Libya, do not hesitate to use military intervention to quiet the protesters.

The "rebalancing" in the Middle East has not eliminated problems for the United States. Rather, it has produced a new series of issues and headaches.

The first is the accelerating spread of extremist religious forces. Secular regimes in the Middle East, such as Libya and Syria, have been the center of the crackdown on these forces, but the West's intervention in these countries has provided an opportunity for them to spread. Syria in the past has been protected from terrorist attacks, but since the Arab Spring in 2011, terrorists have been using Syria as a channel for their plans. Libya is in the same boat. Before the Arab Spring, the Libya jihad had all but disappeared, but the country's political turmoil has allowed for its reappearance. If it does not interfere in the internal affairs of some of the countries in the Middle East, the United States will be allowing for new space and development for these organizations. The growth of these extremist forces is a serious threat for the United States.

The second is the growth of Islam in politics in the Middle East. In a way, it was the United States' political gamble to push for a democratic transition that has allowed political Islamic forces to gain control. Islamic values are seemingly incompatible with Western ones due to the hostility in the political exchanges between the two regions. Allowing for the rise of Islam in politics means that to some extent the United States is losing the ability to control the situation in the Middle East. Morsi, the president of Egypt, went to Iran to participate in the Non-Aligned Movement summit and has also shown support for Hamas in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which all indicates that the new Egypt is pursuing a diplomatic policy away from the United States.

Though the Obama administration was determined to improve relations with the Muslim world, anti-American sentiment has increased during his term rather than fallen. A Pew Center survey in June of 2012 showed that the support rate of the United States in several Muslim countries was slightly lower than in 2008. The higher the level of U.S. assistance to Arab countries, the greater the level of anti-American sentiment. Another June 2012 report put out by the think thank Center for a New American Security showed that many diplomats and military officers, as well as several Arab monarchs, all agreed that gone are the days of United States activities in the Middle East.

When the U.S. ambassador to Libya was killed in an attack in Benghazi, Hillary Clinton, who at the time was still secretary of state, asked, "How could this happen in a country we helped liberate, in a city we helped save from destruction?" The answer to this question, which Clinton left behind, could now be Kerry's primary problem.


告别了被调侃为“劳模”的希拉里,美国人很快发现,新国务卿克里似乎比前任还忙。2月3日,刚刚上任的克里就迫不及待地打电话给以色列总理内塔尼亚胡和巴勒斯坦民族权力机构主席阿巴斯,表示美国将致力于中东和平进程。有分析认为,从克里上任伊始的日程表看,他对于中东的兴趣似乎超过了亚太,而这背后,是美国在中东剧变中得不偿失的困局。

  美国是影响中东格局的最主要外部力量。中东剧变前,美国正在加大战略东移步伐,在中东明显呈收缩态势。肇始于2011年的中东剧变显然打乱了美国的部署,使其不得不继续驻足中东:一方面,中东陷入前所未有的动荡,为美国重塑中东秩序提供了难得机遇;另一方面,中东剧变中,众多亲西方政权根基动摇乃至垮台,使美国传统的中东政策日趋失灵,不得不花大力气修补。

  这种干涉主要表现为两方面。一方面,尽量扶植亲西方势力,对亲西方国家视情采取不同政策。对当权者权力基础暂时稳定的国家如沙特、巴林等尽量帮扶;如果当权者大势已去,如埃及和也门,便转而支持抗议民众诉求。另一方面,对不听西方号令的“激进国家”,不遗余力地鼓动和支持民众反抗政府,甚至进行军事干涉,如叙利亚和利比亚。

  然而,美国中东政策“再调整”并未完全消除旧问题,反而产生了一系列令其头疼的新问题。

  首先是极端宗教势力加速蔓延。中东世俗政权,如利比亚和叙利亚,本来是镇压极端宗教势力的中坚力量,但西方国家的干涉,使这些国家不同程度地出现权力真空,从而为极端宗教势力蔓延提供契机。叙利亚过去一直与恐怖主义绝缘,但自2011年陷入动荡后,国外宗教武装分子通过各种渠道涌入叙利亚。利比亚也是类似情况。2011年动荡前,利比亚主要圣战组织“伊斯兰战斗团”已销声匿迹,但该国政治动荡使其重趋活跃,的黎波里军事委员会主席贝尔哈吉和东部城市德尔纳军事委员会负责人哈萨迪,均是“伊斯兰战斗团”的前领导人。美国对部分中东国家内政的肆意干涉,促使“基地”组织等极端宗教势力获得新的喘息和发展机会。这些极端势力的壮大,使美国面临的非传统安全威胁重新加剧。

  其次是政治伊斯兰势力在中东壮大。在某种程度上,正是美国在中东力推民主转型的“政治豪赌”,使政治伊斯兰势力成为最大受益者。由于政治伊斯兰的价值观与西方格格不入,双方交往历史充满敌对,因此,中东政治“伊斯兰化”,某种程度上意味着美国正日渐失去对中东局势的控制能力。穆尔西当选埃及新总统后,亲赴伊朗参加不结盟运动峰会以及在巴以冲突中支持哈马斯,表明新埃及正在推行远离美国的外交政策。奥巴马政府曾矢志改善与穆斯林世界关系,但阿拉伯世界反美情绪不降反升。2012年6月美国皮尤中心调查显示,美国在几个主要穆斯林国家的支持率都较2008年略低,而且美国援助力度越大的阿拉伯国家,反美情绪越高。美国智库“新美国安全中心”2012年6月的报告指出,“美国外交官和军官与几个阿拉伯国家君主和将军决定美国在中东活动的日子已一去不复返”。

  2012年9月11日,美国驻利比亚大使在班加西遭袭身亡,时任国务卿希拉里大惑不解:“这怎么会发生在一个我们帮助解放的国家,在一个我们帮助免遭摧毁的城市?”解答希拉里留下的疑问,也许就是摆在新国务卿克里面前的首要难题。
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