When Will America Attack Iran?
By Han Xudong
Translated By John Yu
12 May 2010
Edited by Harley Jackson
China - Xinhua - Original Article (Chinese)
At the moment, Iranian President Ahmadinejad is the only person who will be attending the UN nuclear talks, during which he will defend his nation’s development of nuclear technology, which he insists is peaceful. Iran, unfortunately, has not been cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and has failed to provide conclusive proof that its designs are peaceful. That makes its nuclear program a mystery and the ongoing dispute with America remains at a stalemate. Since Obama proclaimed the idea of a nuclear-free world, many have predicted that Iran will be attacked on the grounds of being a “nuclear terrorist.” At this point, it is anyone’s guess whether the U.S. will eventually invade.
Is America preparing to invade?
The history of Uncle Sam’s dominance shows that ever since the U.S. started expanding its overseas influence in the 1898 Spanish-American War, it has been using the carrot and the stick to advance its agenda. When the carrot fails, America has no qualms about resorting to the stick, a trend which may soon apply to Iran. Unfortunately, the stick is not working either, so America may soon start using a bigger stick.
If America is preparing to invade, it might not be readily apparent. That’s because it wouldn’t need to dispatch large numbers of troops the way it invaded Iraq or conduct air strikes as it did in Yugoslavia. It could simply mount a multi-pronged attack from the three regions in which troops have already been stationed – Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Indian Ocean.
Why Hasn’t America Invaded Yet?
If they’re preparing to invade, why haven’t they done so yet? The answer is that it would be very different than invading Iraq or Afghanistan. First, there aren’t yet any grounds for an attack; America does not have sufficient proof that a nuclear weapon is being developed. Given the fact that America was never able to prove its reasons for the invasion of Iraq, it is unlikely that Obama will launch a similar campaign against Iran. Second, Iran has different terrain and a different military force than the Taliban. Iraq is flat whereas Iran is mountainous, and although the Taliban won Afghanistan’s civil war, it is still far weaker than Iran. Currently, Iran is nearly the dominant power of the Middle East, and America is not about to carelessly invade.
Is America Awaiting the Right Opportunity?
The stick is one of America’s favorite methods of subjugating opponents, so why hasn’t it used it yet? They are waiting for the right chance (first pacify Iraq and Afghanistan, then focus on Iran), making a case for invasion, focusing on objectives and awaiting the right global climate.
If Iran refuses to “cooperate,” there’s no doubt America will invade. We’ll just have to wait and see when and on what scale it happens.
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