Will Americans Vote for a Black Presidential Candidate?

In 1964 when President Johnson signed the Civil Rights Acts into law, he said that he had just delivered the South to the Republicans. Back then, the Democrats controlled the South, the Civil Rights Acts alienated white people in the South, and implementation of the “Southern Strategy” by the Republicans made the GOP THE party of the South for two generations.

A win by Obama would mean so much for America. It would surpass the Civil Rights Acts, Martin Luther King’s movement, and the Reverend Jessie Jackson’s presidential campaign in the 1980s.

During the campaign, Obama has said that he is a post-racial or bi-racial candidate, and unlike traditional black politicians, he is highly educated; he does not get angry. Strategically, and so as to not alienate white voters, he does not talk about the fact that he would be the first black president; but in the eyes of black people, they see Obama as a black politician.

The Obama campaign has been very cautious in running a race-conscious campaign. They know that some of the blue collar, white voters will vote for the McCain-Palin ticket. However, in swing states like North Carolina and Florida, where the turnout from black people had been low, the Obama campaign has been registering black people, hoping they will get out and vote for Obama.

Obama can certainly do that. He has raised so much money; in September alone, he raised $150 million, more than three times raised by McCain in the last three months. And with that kind of money, Obama hired more than 300 people compared to McCain’s 25 people in North Carolina. Moreover, Obama has been buying television ads. in ten key swing states. Obama could certainly win with that kind of money.

However, many people have a hidden racial bias towards black people. In Republican rallies, people mention Obama’s full name, “Barrack Hussein Obama”, implying that Obama is a Muslim and a terrorist.

According the AP-Yahoo poll in September, about one third of Democrats have negative opinions regarding black people. No one knows if that will translate into not voting for Obama.

Perhaps they are Hillary supporters and support single proposals made by Obama. But when they go to the poll, they cannot vote for Obama simply because he is black. This is the “Bradley effect”. In the 1980s, Democrat Tom Bradley, an African American, ran for California Governor. The pre-election polls indicated that he had a wide lead, and when the polls closed he lost the election.

It’s hard to find out what people think in private in polls. People will not tell pollsters what they think of minorities. However, pollsters have now found ways to diminish the Bradley effect, unlike the elections in the 1980s.

African Americans have experienced too many disappointments in the past. They don’t want to get very excited and end up disappointed. Although African Americans support Obama, they have mixed feelings: there are expectations, hope, pride, and fear.

In private, many African Americans believe there are some underground organizations that would do whatever it takes to stop Obama becoming president; perhaps Obama will end up like President Kennedy and be assassinated. There are whispers among African Americans that because Obama is black, something will happen to him.

African Americans will not accept the possibility of Obama losing the election. Democracy and elections will not mean much to them at that point. There are some African Americans preparing right now, on November 5th, to call in sick at work, to make a point that perhaps if African Americans stay home and don’t go to work, people will start taking African Americans seriously.

Due to racial reasons, this election will make a huge impact in American political history. If Obama wins, he can’t erase some white Americans’ prejudice towards African Americans; if Obama loses, African Americans won’t let this go quietly.

For the next election, racial politics will be in the spotlight again. It will take a few elections to get people used to having a minority politian becoming president; and to prove that black people are as capable (or incapable) to govern as well as white people. Race will not matter in politics when people finally don’t get excited about a minority politician running for office.