Huanqiu special correspondent Wang Si reports, “China’s unyielding secrecy about its nuclear arms strategies leaves open the worrying prospect of a costly U.S. misstep during a crisis.” On January 15, Dennis Wilder, the Senior Director for East Asian Affairs on the National Security Council, made this kind of sensationalized statement, requesting that China reveal its “nuclear secrets.”
On January 15, the Associated Press released a report entitled “Bush official urges China to lift nuclear secrecy.” When addressing an audience of Asia specialists and reporters, Dennis Wilder, NSC Senior Director for East Asian Affairs, stated that Washington and Beijing began bilateral discussions on nuclear policies and systems last year. However, according to Wilder, what is more important is that the U.S. needs the Chinese to be more open on nuclear issues. Wilder added that China has already developed mobile land-based nuclear missiles and moved closer to fielding sea-based nuclear ballistic missile forces.
Wilder also mentioned that China’s “mysterious” stance on this nuclear weapons issue gives the Chinese army “a degree of edge.” He imagines that in the event that China’s military actions pose a threat for the U.S., China will be like a “black box” whose secretive nuclear policies and plans will cause problems for U.S. intelligence agencies. Wilder stated: “At different levels of alert, American forces do certain things. Without that information, you do worry about miscalculation. Right now, the American-Chinese relationship is in great shape. But we all know periods when it hasn’t been. And I worry about those moments when the Chinese military, let’s say, flushes to the field.” He stated that these actions may just be military exercises, but they may lead to “missteps” on the American side.
According to the Associated Press, Wilder “expressed doubt that China would join the United States and Russia in negotiations over reducing the number of their deployed nuclear weapons.” His reason is that on January 13, Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton, at her Senate confirmation hearing, stated that the Obama administration hopes that the U.S. and Russia will both decrease their nuclear arsenal. However, she did not mention China.
In the report, Wilder claimed that he believes the Chinese assertion that they would not be the first to use nuclear weapons, but he also stated: “But I do think they want that retaliatory capability. On the Chinese side, there is a reluctance to have that discussion because it’s an ace.”
During an interview with Huanqiu reporters, Shen Dingli – Executive Vice Dean of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies and an expert on arms control – claimed that it does not make sense for the U.S., a country with a strong nuclear program, to make such a request of China. Professor Shen stated there is a great disparity between China’s and the U.S.’s nuclear strength. Overall, other countries believe that America has a large number of nuclear warheads, of which 300 to 500 are meant for China. “The U.S. is fully aware that China’s nuclear power cannot be compared that of the U.S., but the U.S. still urges China to reveal its nuclear secrets. The U.S.’s goal is to accurately estimate its strength, increase its military intimidation toward China, and ensure greater safety for the U.S. army.” Shen Dingli believes that the U.S. has created an inequality in U.S.-China politics, for example, regarding issues such as the situation with Taiwan. Now, the U.S. hopes to further ensure that there will be an inequality in the military arena, which is really unreasonable.
At the same time, according to Shen Dengli, the U.S.’s so-called fear of “suffering from Chinese military action due to a lack of knowledge of China’s nuclear secrets” is irrational. “Military transparency and the preservation of nuclear striking capabilities have nothing to do with each other.” Shen Dingli pointed that China has reiterated many times that it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. However, China has not stated that it will give up this form of defensive capability. “China will not initiate a ‘hostile’ attack, but if other countries repeatedly infringe on China’s core interests and ignore repeated warnings, China has the right to launch a counterattack and will not notify America in advance.”
Each nuclear weapon state has a nuclear weapons doctrine that is usually articulated clearly to facilitate (a) Its deterrent posture, which China has long declared; (b) To lay down guide lines on the parameters of its nuclear strategy that would dictate to the concerned agencies the details of systems and structures, operational concept, deployment policy, targeting policy, strategic command and control of strategic forces including release mechanisms and so on – and these SHOULD BE HIGHLY CLASSIFIED, which in China’s case they are. Only a lame brain would expect a potential adversary to make its nuclear strategy public. The US has fielded from 68,000 to the current approximately 17,000 strategic and tactical nuclear weapons, which by its sheer massive overkill capabilities gives rise to an arrogance of power whereby transparency of strategy is used to intimidate the adversary. Yet another characteristic of US nuclear strategy is a throw back to the Cold War era in which they had developed grandiose plans of strategic and battlefield use of nuclear weapon systems, which in turn gave rise to terms such as ‘First Strike’ and ‘Second strike’. Those unrealistic concepts arose from a misplaced belief that nuclear weapons could be orchestrated into a military operation and at the strategic level they would have a capacity to retaliate even after most of the population was wiped out. Countries other than the erstwhile super powers field limited force levels and realistically their doctrines are based on the need to deter and not to carry out prolonged engagements, Their doctrines are based on a threat to retaliate to a nuclear attack and, therefore, it would be down right stupid to make their nuclear strategy transparent. This opacity is a major means to deter ‘hot heads’ in countries with huge nuclear arsenals — and that is where the rub lies.