Not the Beginning of a Multi-Polar World, After All?

Obama has taken office as U.S. President. Has the world ever pinned so many of its hopes on a new leader? While the rest of the world is hopeful of the new administration, in Japan the sentiment is a little different. There is concern here that China might be able to steal America’s “heart” during Obama’s tenure. If these concerns prove to be well founded, Japan will sustain an “Obama Shock,” a historic turning point in the Japan-U.S. alliance.

I would like to mention some indicative signs of Obama’s foreign policy leanings. I heard it from an American acquaintance who was tapped to be in charge of an Asian diplomatic team in the coming administration.

In the midst of the struggle within the Democratic Party for the presidential nomination last March, around 40 members of the diplomatic staff of the Obama and Hillary Clinton (the next Secretary of State) camps met at a South Florida hotel. They had been selected for the high diplomatic posts of the new administration, regardless of which presidential candidate won. Their goal was to provide an integrated foreign policy plan for the new Democratic administration.

In several days of shared lodging and discussions, the topic shifted to the policy towards China, Russia and India. The session was devoted exclusively to these three countries because they were said to be the countries who affected the course of international order; Japan was mentioned only in the context of Chinese policy.

With this case in point, I believe America had no intention to slight Japan at all. America does think Japan is important, but only relatively “important” within America’s world strategy.

Continually watching the top foreign leaders and diplomats visit the White House until the spring of last year, I thought of an analogy for America.

America is a very good-looking man who draws attention from all over the world. This popular, handsome guy is surrounded by all sorts of women, from coquettish beauties to stalkers. He is often at a loss at what to do. Though he has a lot of girlfriends (allied countries), Japan remains earnest and devoted. Once in a while, America softly reassures Japan, “You’re important,” and she continues to remain with him.

It isn’t something to laugh about. I want you to recall the details of the delisting of North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism on October last year. Japan implored the U.S. not to do so, but President Bush, though reiterating that he was not forgetting the abduction issue, continued with the delisting anyway. Despite all this, Japan, not learning its lesson, keeps chanting about “strengthening U.S.-Japan relations” as if they were magic words.

This is a deviation from our subject, but as Obama’s popularity looks to reach Guinness record highs, Japan’s jealousy also seems likely to grow. Paradoxically, the international community’s high expectations of Obama have been a complete reversal from the previous administration. It is to the point where you can realize how despised America’s immense power under Bush was. In a general sense, these high expectations from the international community actually show important America remains, and that we may not be at the beginning of a multi-polar world after all.

Presently, America is the sole superpower, and Europe, Russia, China, and India, are budding “power centers.” And, the country with the potential to reach America’s level is China.

Richard Haass, an authority on American diplomacy and president of the Council of Foreign Relations, pointed out on the New Year’s issue of Newsweek that the overriding issue of the new administration is U.S.-China relations, and that it may well shape the 21st century. As the financial crisis, Iran, North Korea’s nuclear problem, and the energy crisis illustrate, the world is confronted with many issues that would be difficult to resolve without China’s cooperation.

The importance of U.S.-China relations is the self-evident truth now. Even though the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty remains in place, the days when Japan had special status in American foreign policy are over, says Naoki Tanaka, President of the Center for International Public Policy Studies.

Japan, benefiting from its alliance with the U.S. after World War II, grew to be the world’s second-largest economic power. However, because of the excessive reliance on its ally, it was not able to develop its political and diplomatic capabilities. With the end of American world hegemony in sight, Japan’s international status will dramatically decline if it continues to depend on this alliance.

While continuing to cooperate with America, Japan should proactively go forward with a multi-polar diplomatic strategy for Asia and for international organizations. It must, with an eye on being involved in the future of a U.S.-China bipolar world, have a sound strategy to secure its national interests.

For example, Japan, can take the initiative towards establishing regular, summit meetings with the U.S. and China, while proactively presenting proposals in its fields of expertise-environment, energy, and Africa. Through this, it can expand its influence on both U.S. and China.