Will Russia Help the U.S. Deal with the Iranian Threat?

The speech made by Barack Obama about abandoning the deployment of the anti-missile system in Eastern Europe once again brought up the issue of the joint use of the Gabala radar station between Russia and the United States. Was the U.S. anti-missile system finally fixed on Azerbaijan?

On Sept. 20, U.S. Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Cartwright pointed out that based on the U.S.’s new anti-missile system plan, the Pentagon is ready to replace the Czech Republic as the place to deploy early warning radars in the Caucasus region. However, Cartwright did not disclose the specific country.

The U.S. military has indirectly denied the rumor about deployment of an anti-missile system in the Middle East. The director of the U.S. Defense Research Center, David Johnson, thinks that the media report on building new anti-missile bases in Israel and Turkey is impractical.

On Sept. 24, when interviewed by a staff writer, military analyst Jafar Rove said that the United States will most likely choose locations in the South Caucasus region to deploy anti-ballistic missile systems now that the Czech Republic and Poland were abandoned. The reason is very simple; Poland and the Czech Republic are already NATO members and could renew the deployment of missile defense systems at any time. However, the United States is interested in the Caucasus and has worked on a way to use the Gabala radar station to deploy anti-ballistic missile systems.

U.S. Senator Carl Levin thought that the Gabala radar station could be a potential place of cooperation with Russia. However, the Gabala station would only serve a supplementary role in any missile surveillance system. According to Carl Levin, this issue has been listed in the 2010 defense bill and will be included in the agenda of U.S. Congress’s next session. The bill, No.S1390, is actually a report about potential cooperation between the United States and Russia about anti-missile systems on a number of military targets. It is particularly focused on the exchange of early warning information among countries and organizations which monitor ballistic missiles, including the information obtained by Russia in radar stations in Gabala and Armavir.

Neither the temporarily abandoned anti-missile system in Eastern Europe, nor the uncertain anti-missile system in the Caucasus has changed the fact that the U.S. openly regards Iran as a threat. From a military point of view, if Iranian missiles are counted as a real threat, the deployment of surveillance and interception facilities at a place closer to the threat source is very realistic and logical. Moreover, for global anti-missile systems, the Gabala radar station can be used as one component because it is the only large-scale monitoring facility pointed towards the Middle East, and it is in a relatively stable country, Azerbaijan. Thus, if the United States eventually establishes a global system, the Gabala radar station could play a part.

The prospect for the joint use of the Gabala radar station remains uncertain. Analysts reckoned that now it may not be a sure thing that Moscow and Washington will unite to use Gabala radar station.

Western observers believe that the cooperation between the United States and Russia in this area depends on several factors, the first being the progress of U.S.-Russian relations. After all, the desire of resetting relations with Russia has thus far not been equaled in reality.

Secondly, Moscow’s reluctance to engage in constructive cooperation with NATO will also affect cooperation between the two countries. However, if constructive cooperation refers to Russia’s entry into NATO, as suggested by NATO Secretary-General, it is nothing more than wishful thinking.

Thirdly, whether the United States demonstrates efforts to consolidate the cooperation with Russia will play a major role. Analysts commented that if the United States has a similar system in Turkey, does that mean Russia should set up its own radar system in Mexico? The father of containment theory, the late George Kennan, once said, “it’s worse for the United States to advance NATO to Russia’s border than to have a conflict with it after the Cold War.” Russia’s position is very clear in opposition of the deployment of any form of anti-missile systems in the Caucasus.

Considering that the United States needs to address more complex issues with its geopolitical opponent Iran, analysts have said that if the Iranian nuclear threat continues to build up, cooperation with Russia will be significant. Nevertheless, it is difficult to say whether the two sides will move towards closer collaboration. The United States suspended the deployment of anti-ballistic missile systems in the Czech Republic but did not change its judgment about threats. Therefore, the U.S. is bound to find another way to more effectively curb the Iranian threat. British transatlantic Institute Chairman Norman thought “the deployment of sea-based systems in the North Sea and the eastern Mediterranean can be used to protect Europe, and the land-based systems in Turkey and Israel can be used as a supplement to study the possibility to dispose of the system in the Balkans.”

At the same time, in view of the rumor that secret deals between the United States and Russia exist, the U.S. eliminated the friction with Russia by developing the SM-3 system to replace the interceptor missiles which prevent short-range missile threats. It remains to be seen, however, if Russia is ready to help the United States remove Iran’s nuclear threat. According to Azerbaijan military analyst Ildyrym Mamedov, the reason that the United States is now monitoring Iran’s territory so often is to exchange intelligence with Russia. In other words, the United States and Russia are already sharing monitoring information from the Gabala radar station.

In the opinion of the Azerbaijan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the deployment of an anti-ballistic missile system and the collaboration with the United States on anti-missile monitoring are two different issues. The U.S. abandonment of the anti-ballistic missile system deployment in Eastern Europe can only be understood as the first step towards the two sides discussing global anti-missile system issues. At this stage it is only conjecture. As for the Russian-U.S. joint use of the Gabala radar station, although promising, it is only the first step towards cooperation. As chief of the Russian General Staff Makarov said, there is the possibility of working together with the United States. However, right now it is far from being a global joint anti-missile system.