Nobody will Tolerate Failure in Copenhagen

Today the attention of the world centered on Copenhagen, where the most ambitious summit on climate change to date began. Delegates from over 100 states and governments will participate, with the objective of achieving an accord to combat what, without a doubt, is one of the biggest challenges to humanity.

However, the summit began with strong background noise, provoked by the stolen e-mail scandal at the British University of East Anglia, a principal climate study center. The e-mails contained conversations among investigators about how to “manage” the data and use “short-cuts” in order to balance the results. The director of the center, Phil Jones, has resigned and the person in charge of the United Nations’ panel of experts, Rajendra Pachuari, has started an investigation. Those who deny or are skeptical of global warming – who have nicknamed the case “Climategate” – are already using it to reaffirm that climate change is a big lie.

There is much debate about whether climate change is an invention or exaggeration. The response is that we have a large quantity of studies that endorse it as an undeniable reality. It is true that there are still gaps in our knowledge of the climate system, and it is on these gaps that critics have focused in order to doubt the conclusions supported by the majority of the scientific community. However, innumerable, rigorously taken measurements demonstrate that the average temperature of the planet is accelerating abnormally and that it has increased along with the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. Additionally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been careful to indicate in its most recent report that there is a 90 percent probability that what is occurring is due to human actions.

The summit in Copenhagen has convened in order to look for solutions. During the previous months, it has worked on the design of a binding agreement for the reduction of greenhouse gases that would replace the current Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. Since 1997, when 37 countries signed it, international interest in the subject has continued to grow. The objective now is much more ambitious and hopes to include the big players that were not involved then: the United States and China, who are responsible for 50 percent of all CO2 emissions. The arrival of Obama to the White House has been significant. However, in crisis, the United States has already distanced itself from the ambitious proposal of reductions by the United Nations and the European Union, which was established at 30 percent by the year 2020.

The range of solutions that members of the summit support include energy saving measures, the use of renewable resources and technologies that don’t emit CO2, such as nuclear power. But, in Copenhagen, nothing has been decided yet. Who must reduce their emissions and by how much? Who will assume the costs of this effort? What sanctions will they impose on a country that doesn’t meet the requirements and what organization will oversee the process? There is also the intense pressure of public opinion that obliges world leaders to take the problem very seriously, as demonstrated by the fact that Obama has had to correct himself and announce that he will aid in the creation of the final product of the summit. Yet, the challenge is so large that, probably, the summit will end in a mere political declaration, very far from the objective of establishing a new agreement.

Without a doubt, Obama’s presence is fundamental to achieving an agreement that permits work to continue after the summit, along with further investigation into climate change in order to dispel skepticism of global warming. El Mundo will follow all of these aspects with attention and detail, because the issue isn’t to believe, but to know.