Does Iran Benefit from US Military Withdrawal?

On Dec. 18, the U.S. military completely withdrew from Iraq. Analysts claim that the withdrawal of the U.S. Army benefits Iran.

America’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq exerted significant pressure on Iran’s eastern and western borders. To the east of Iran, there was the U.S. Army in Afghanistan. To its west was the U.S. Army in Iraq. To its south, there is Saudi Arabia, the loyal U.S. ally. Within the Persian Gulf is the U.S. base in Kuwait. It is not an exaggeration to say that Iran was surrounded by a threatening enemy.

The U.S. military withdrawal not only eases the pressure on Iran but relieves political stress in Iran. The Shiite-led Iraq government is friendly to Iran. Iraqi leaders won’t forget that Iran gave refuge to Shiite Iraqis during the rule of the Sunni Saddam Hussein.

In terms of the whole Persian Gulf area, according to the U.S. media, in the post-U.S. military era, the situation will possibly change. Iraq’s population and known oil reserves rank among the top two in the area. Therefore, Iraq may change the original ground rules by becoming a transformational player, turning itself into an influential country.

In addition, Americans are worried about Iraqi prime minister al-Maliki’s position toward Iran. Previously, al-Maliki had been indifferent toward Iran, but last year, the political crisis lasting several months after Iraq’s congressional elections enabled al-Maliki to realize that indifference to Iran will lead to loss of political support.

The benefits Iran gains from Iraq do not allow it to “relax completely” because both countries used to have conflicts and long wars.

The war triggered by the U.S. has lasted almost nine years in Iraq, but in the 1980s, the Iraq-Iran war also lasted about nine years. At that time, Saddam sent young Shiites to the frontline and let Iraq’s Shiites and Iran’s Shiites fight against each other. The Shiites in Iraq ultimately suffered a big loss.

The pain from the wars has not vanished yet. Up to today, many Iraqi Shiites are still not friendly with Iran; the Sunni Iraqis, needless to say, have a ferocious hatred toward Iran. Therefore, Iran’s achieving peaceful relations with its neighbors still has a long way to go.