China Adds Russia to Its Anti-Japan Alliance, America Makes a Mistake in Offending China and Russia

Masaru Sato, an ex-official of Japan’s Foreign Ministry, wrote in Japan’s Sports Hochi that while Putin’s visit to China seemed like a discussion of energy exports, Russia and China were in fact strengthening their political and military alliance in the face of Russian isolation due to the Ukrainian crisis. The U.S.-Russia relationship would continue to deteriorate, and China would attempt to add Russia to its anti-Japan alliance.

Can America stop Russia’s Asian energy policy? Gal Luft, Senior Advisor to the United States Energy Security Council, recommended that America should cooperate with governments in the Asia-Pacific region (China, Japan, South Korea) and gradually change the natural energy market into a competition of energy sources, rather than letting Russia monopolize the area. In addition, Washington is working hard to involve China and India in international energy organizations. Meanwhile, Russia is strongly retaliating against America’s inhibitive policies. On the 13th, Dmitry Rogozin, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia expressed that Russia might pause 11 American-owned GPS’ ground-level operations in Russia on June 1, and stop their operation completely after that. Rogozin also said that Russia might stop exporting any rocket engines to America, and is considering stopping the space station after 2020.

Ted Galen Carpenter, an analyst with the Cato Institute, warned that it is unwise to make China-Russia into an anti-American alliance. He said in the American publication The National Interest that America is on the verge of a major foreign policy mistake: offending two major countries at the same time. Carpenter recommended that America improve its relationship with China and Russia, and that if Obama could not achieve this goal, then at least make one country its main opponent rather than endangering its relationship with both countries. “The last thing we should want to do is inadvertently help reverse the split between Moscow and Beijing that began in the late 1950s.”

On the 14th, the Pentagon welcomed Fang Fenghui, the Chinese military’s chief of staff. The German newspaper Rheinische Post speculated that American invitation of the Chinese military top brass and a tour of the aircraft carrier showed the two military powers have somewhat improved their relationship.

In a time of Ukrainian crisis and the China-Japan island conflict, every gesture between China and Russia is worth extra analysis. America is worried that China would side with Russia. The Independent, a Russian paper, said Washington is attempting to kiss up to China and isolate Moscow, that it is trying to deepen the China-U.S. military partnership to obstruct the China-Russia relationship. Zhou Qi, an analyst with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, spoke to Huanqiu reporters on the 14th. He said that from the viewpoint of major country relationships, America indeed has some security concerns about its own interests, and feels it has pushed China away on some issues. Allowing China and Russia to have policy coordination on more and more major international issues may directly or indirectly affect America’s national interest.

The Segye Times, a Korean paper, analyzed on the 14th that, while China and America are exchanging sharp diplomatic retorts over South Sea issues, the two countries are in fact accelerating their conversations in the military arena. A framework of “seeking balance and cooperation within opposition and checks-and-balances” is becoming more and more evident. China and America may be criticizing each other over East Sea and South Sea issues, but both countries are clear on one point, and that is to avoid a military conflict. Fang’s U.S. visit happened at a time of increased diplomatic fencing between China and America, and the two countries’ militaries might engage in an “under-the-table discussion.”

Alexander Neill, Senior Fellow of Britain’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, felt that while the American Secretary of Defense exchanged sharp words with Chinese officials during his last visit to Beijing, the fact that Fang kept his visit made one feel encouraged. This indicates that the China-U.S. military relationship is rational and mature. In his analysis, Fang emphasized to the Americans, “Do not engage in the South Sea,” and also discussed the Ukrainian situation. America might have exerted pressure on China, hoping it would not follow Russia too far on such issues as Ukrainian security.