Republican Offensive to Crush Obama in Next Tuesday’s Elections

Conservatives hope to control the Senate and House of Representatives, where they will be able to hinder the president’s main initiatives.

The U.S. is now on the home stretch to the elections next Tuesday, Nov. 4, in which an advance is expected for Republicans who are attempting to destroy Obama’s maneuverability within the country and complicate the last two years of his presidency as much as possible.

If there were the possibility of a Republican victory months ago, the events of recent weeks — the struggle for effective control over the Islamic State jihadi and fear of the spread of Ebola — seem to have consolidated this possibility. A survey published yesterday by NBC and The Wall Street Journal stated that Republicans have 46 percent support as compared to the Democrats’ 42 percent, a difference that will grow to 11 points when probable voters are taken into account.

The most significant point of this survey is that 53 percent of Democratic Party supporters state that recent events give them a less favorable view of the current arrangement.

Next Tuesday will be held what are called the “midterm elections” in the United States. Every two years, the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are elected. These elections go somewhat un-noticed when they coincide with the presidential elections, but reach their full political importance when they take place in the middle of the presidential term.

In the latter, there tends to be a fair amount of protest votes against the White House. This happened in 2010, when Republicans took control of the House of Representatives, boosted by the success of the tea party — the Democrats were in control from the last midterm in 2006 and won against George Bush. Now, they can increase this majority and run off with the Senate.

If the Republicans are able to take the reins in both chambers of Congress, Obama will be clearly reduced to the condition of a “lame duck,” the term used in U.S. politics to refer to the last phase of a president with no more initiative. Some analysts, however, estimate that more laws will be passed than previously, given that Republicans will be eager to cultivate their image in the run up to the 2016 presidential elections. It is particularly key in terms of convenience for Republicans to pass immigration reform, which they have opposed until now.

Obama’s low popularity — with around 40 percent approval — has led to what The New York Times has dubbed “Democratic panic.” Many of the party’s candidates made the request to Obama not to approach their electoral districts. Similarly, George W. Bush was not requested by many Republican candidates in 2006, in the middle of the Iraq war, but in Obama’s case, the distance is even greater. There have been Democratic candidates who have refused to answer the question of whether they voted for Obama.

Hitting Everyone’s Targets

Nor is the president making it easy for his party. He has accepted limiting himself to appearing with some gubernatorial candidates — on Tuesday, 36 of the 50 U.S. governors will be chosen, but they remain on the sideline of the battle for the two chambers of Congress, the source of the main political pulse — or with certain senators with no problems for re-election. At the same time, he has stated, apparently taken by a certain spitefulness, that those currently looking the other way have been defending their policies.

“These are all folks who vote with me,” he said in a radio program, in reference to Democratic candidates. In one of his public speeches, he stated that it is his policies that are “on the ballot.” When everyone in the Democratic Party is making an effort to present every electoral battle as a local matter, with the specific details of each place, Obama has played into the hands of the Republican Party, which has concentrated the main negative messages on the president’s persona. Even David Axelrod, orchestrator of Obama’s electoral victories, acknowledged that these declarations had been “a mistake.”

A symbol of the loss of Obama’s good fortune, as highlighted last week in The Washington Post, was the lack of attention paid by those attending a meeting in Maryland. Before the end of his speech, many had started to leave the auditorium.

Nor is Michelle Obama, at other times very active in election campaigns, playing any kind of lead role. She has even had a “slip-up.” In a visit to Iowa to support Bruce Braley, Democratic candidate for the Senate, the first lady repeatedly referred to him as “Bailey.” The next time she traveled to this state, Michelle Obama joked about her mistake, but when the White House released the transcript of her words, it stated that “Braley” was the candidate for governor.

It favors the Republicans that the elections are taking place in the middle of the term, which doesn’t have the mobilizing effects of taking place at the same time as the presidential elections, meaning there is usually greater Republican participation. In particular, there is a high percentage of white, retired voters.

In the 2010 elections, 77 percent of voters were white non-Hispanics, when this race comprises 64 percent of the population; 24 percent were people over 64 years of age, also clearly above the 13 percent that this age group comprises of the U.S. population. The districts with a higher number of retired people are in Florida, a state that attracts senior citizens from all over the country, at least seasonally; Republicans win in most of the districts.

The Economy Isn’t Enough

Using this as the base of a Republican electoral advantage predicted for Nov. 4 is to completely ignore the main question: For many Americans, it is Obama’s management that is being voted on, something that is no source of praise, which is why the Democratic candidates are trying to distance themselves from the White House. According to a Gallup survey, 52 percent of voters want to take advantage of the situation to vote on the president, 32 percent want to express their rejection, and 20 percent to show their support. A Pew Research study showed last week that 65 percent of citizens are dis-satisfied with how the country works, with foreign policy and security being the main sources of upset. Forty-seven percent of Americans believe that Republicans would do a better job in the war on terror, which puts them 17 points ahead of the Democrats.

Not even economic recovery is playing in favor of the president. There is no sign that this improvement is reflected in voting polls. Even though unemployment fell in September to 5.9 percent, the slow recovery has prevented the coming out of the crisis from generating any special social optimism. Moreover, in recent weeks, citizens’ trust in the way the Obama administration has dealt with the Ebola crisis has dropped.