The foretold Republican victory tomorrow will be because of resentment votes against Barack Obama.
Tomorrow, the U.S. will have its midterm elections. Americans will vote on who will occupy the 435 seats of the House of Representatives, 33 of the 100 seats of the Senate, and 33 local governments and 46 local legislatures.
The stage is set for a Republican triumph; they would keep control of the House of Representatives, as well as taking for themselves multiple governments and the Senate. It's a catastrophic outlook for Obama and his administration — catastrophic for a president with a record-low approval rating.
What is going on in the United States? Why is there such anger and disapproval toward Obama?
Tomorrow's election will not be a show of support for Republicans and their neoconservatism, but rather a reflection of people's disappointment with Obama.
It's not about the triumph of the right over liberals; instead, it's a complaint against a president who can't be a leader, according to American feelings: at least not what the leader of the U.S. requires during these times of huge issues as regards geopolitics, economics and even health, considering the Ebola outbreak.
The issue is that since the foretold Republican victory tomorrow will be because of resentment votes against Barack Obama and not positive votes for the right, the Republican Party's victory will be merely Pyhrric — a victory that the Republicans lose when they win.
Why? If they don't understand that they won because the voters chose to punish Obama, a fact they refuse to accept, Republicans will favor their party's far right. Such an extreme turn will most likely cost them the presidential election in 2016.
Americans don't like the tea party. They also don't like the avoidance on part of the state regarding the social and economic issues of the common folk. They despise how Wall Street is the favorite and Main Street forgotten.
But Republicans don't seem to understand that. By favoring their most far-right sectors, as they have been doing since George W. Bush's administration, they will be digging a hole so deep they won't be able to come out with a suitable presidential candidate for 2016.
This is the challenge for Republicans once the midterm election is over.
On the other hand, Democrats can't simply blame Obama for their very likely defeat. Representatives, senators and governors have also failed a large part of their voters.
There are three sectors of the population that have consistently supported the Democrats, and now feel disappointed with them, and have abandoned such allegiance or have turned toward Republicans. I'm talking about women, the young and Hispanics. The three groups were essential for Obama's victory in 2008 and 2012; now, the polls show a drop in the allegiance of these three populations to the party.
Starting Wednesday, both Republicans and Democrats will have to start working on their presidential strategies for 2016, taking all these factors into account.