Barack Obama Face to Face with a Republican Congress

Most likely, Republicans, who will take control over the Senate — even though they were already dominant in the House of Representatives, where they’re going to extend their influence — will claim the midterm elections in the United States, which are for one-third of the 100 seats in the Senate and all 435 in the House of Representatives. The latest polls started from the premise that after six years of Democratic administration, Republican voters are more motivated to go out and vote during the most expensive midterm elections in the history of the United States, at a cost of more than $4 billion.

With Barack Obama’s decreasing popularity, the elected Democrats were more preoccupied with distancing themselves from the White House leader than with organizing their campaigns, especially since on the other side, the Republicans wasted no time in attacking the president. These elections are “the last chance” to judge President Obama’s policies, as his former opponent, Mitt Romney, stated.

On the other hand, the party that gave America its president has been losing seats in Congress after each midterm election since 1934, so this is not an exception. Apart from the party’s internal evaluations and debates across the United States, on the outside, many are wondering what impact a Republican Congress is going to have on the external U.S. policy.

According to a survey by Ipsos at the request of Reuters, around 63 percent of Republican voters said that one of their reference points when placing their vote is going to be the way the Obama administration reacted to the threat posed by the Islamic State, which is directly tied to the Syrian matter that Washington was so hesitant about. Another 54 percent said they will also consider how the U.S. responded to the Ebola outbreak.

Three issues are going to be in the Republicans’ focus more than any other external matter: Russia, Iran and the Islamic State group. Regarding jihadi terrorism in the Middle East, the Republicans clearly stated that in their view, the solution is obvious. As the Republicans’ qualified representative, Sen. John McCain stated “They’re winning, and we’re not,” referring to the Islamic militants in Syria and Iraq, and pleading in favor of a direct intervention, aimed also at the leader Bashar al-Assad. “The lack of action during the last three months allowed the fast ascent of the Islamic State, which is probably the biggest threat to American citizens,”* Sen. James Inhofe stated, himself another veteran of the Foreign Relations Committee, whose lead he’s most likely going to take.

In Moscow, Russian analysts are all expecting increased pressure over Russia after the Republicans take over Congress. After its new structure, the State House is going to plead for a more decisive approach from Washington in relation to Vladimir Putin and will support a nuclear agreement with Iran that doesn’t put Israel at a disadvantage, even more so since Barack Obama made it very clear he isn’t going to ask for approval from Congress on this matter. John McCain, along with Mitch McConnell, the leader of the Republican group in the Senate, are the main supporters of a proposed legislation called the Russian Aggression Prevention Act of 2014, which was rejected because of a lack of majority in the Senate. A control from the Senate will automatically lead to another discussion about the points in the proposed legislation, which includes the proposal to allow the Republic of Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine to become non-European-Union NATO members, along with military assistance for Kiev.

What President Obama decides, who has veto right in regard to initiatives and laws, remains to be seen. Some say the Democratic leader has nothing more to lose, since he won’t be able to run in 2016. Others, on the contrary, say that Obama is becoming more and more careful about the legacy he is going to leave, and which could potentially start a direct conflict with the Republicans. The good news for Obama is that inside the Republican Party, the tea party is pleading for American isolationism in the international arena and focusing more on internal matters. However, the more cautious Obama is, the more tempted the Republicans are going to be to take the initiative when it comes to foreign affairs, so that they don’t burden Jeb Bush, it seems, with a bunch of unresolved international issues.

*Editor’s note: Correctly translated, this quote could not be verified.