A Very Remarkable Statement by Obama

I already predicted that 2015 would not bode well for the Middle East. Assad, the Islamic State group and Egypt’s el-Sissi are each in their own way ensuring this is the case. And Erdogan. And the militias that are tearing Libya apart. But there is also one potential glimmer of light.

Iran. At least a deal with Iran.

Last week, a remarkable statement made by American President Obama caught my eye. In an interview with an American radio station he mentioned that Iran could become a “very successful regional power” if it were to reach an agreement with the international community regarding its controversial nuclear program. An American president wishing Iran to become a very successful regional force! Times have changed, no matter how tentatively Obama phrased his wish. In 2002, Bush still classified Iran as part of his “axis of evil,” along with North Korea and Iraq, and it was only in 2008 that Washington sent an undersecretary of state to attend nuclear negotiations with Iran for the first time — and Washington only allowed him to listen.

I think this statement by Obama has not been met with approval among Arab Gulf neighbors. It is exactly what they fear, in fact — that Iran would become “a very successful regional power.” After all, this can only be achieved at the expense of their own position of power. They are right about that.

But this statement tells us one more thing: How badly Obama wants to close this deal with Iran. It is true that he sent Secretary of State Kerry to the area to find a solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but I do not think he ever thought this would lead to much. No good vibrations. The agreement with Cuba is definitely a breakthrough. However, a deal with Iran would be of an entirely different order, given the importance of the Islamic republic in a region that is, for various reasons, very important. It would perhaps not carry exactly the same weight as Nixon normalizing relations with China, but it would be along those lines: a legacy.

There are some obstacles along the way. One of these obstacles is Congress, which is predominantly pursuing additional sanctions against Iraq. And Congress has found — with its recent Republican majority in the House as well as the Senate — even greater opportunity to sabotage an agreement. I read another remarkable statement, by Sen. Lindsey Graham to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: “Congress will follow your lead.” The thing Netanyahu wants isn’t a deal with Iran. By the way, what would you think of a prominent member of the Dutch parliament saying something similar to a foreign prime minister?

In Iran, everything depends on the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. You and I have long been expecting him to ultimately make a veto, because an unpopular regime such as his would be in a better position if it were opposing a dangerous foreign enemy. But I am actually no longer very sure of that. Not just because Iran is heading toward bankruptcy as a result of decreasing oil prices, but because Iran is in fact able to become “a very successful regional power.”