Germany and France are being presumptuous if they believe they can stem Putin’s advance into Eastern Europe by themselves. The U.S. security elite wants to deliver weapons to the Ukraine.
Normandy format is the name of the meeting of four among the German chancellor, the French president and the presidents of Ukraine and Russia. Normandy, in order to commemorate the anniversary last year of the allied D-day attack on the beaches of Normandy while at the same time trying to stamp out the fire of the Ukraine crisis - which is generally known to have failed
Normandy format is a drama without the lead actor, the United States of America. Historically, there is no doubt that the allied landing on June 6, 1944 against the bunkers of the Wehrmacht (German army) would have stood hardly any chance without the ships, men and materials from the United States. The fact that Europeans today, namely Paris and Berlin, want to confront Putin is something mentioned with pride as if it is a matter of a maturity test in world politics.
At the same time, the balances are being overlooked; the asymmetry of the balance of power, the claim of European supremacy and the ability of the Russian side to constantly change roles: sometimes a threatening nuclear power, sometimes a concerned mediator, sometimes a deliverer of weapons and soldiers.
What initially looked like a limited regional crisis in eastern middle Europe, Crimean annexation against the Maidan revolution, is developing step by step into a trail of strength in world politics. The end is undetermined. At the Munich Security Conference, it was unmistakable that the American security elite wants to deliver weapons to Ukraine and is not just acting as if it is countering Putin as a deterrent.
It was just as evident that the Europeans, from Warsaw to Berlin to Paris and London fear the delivery of weapons as a leap into the dark. That is because anyone who delivers high-tech weapons must also provide advisers and instructors, and then the situation that both superpowers tried to avoid at all costs during the entire Cold War can soon develop: Blue versus Red.
The EU-Europeans, who do not like to talk about weapons in their quiet councils and have hardly any experience with them, for the time being find themselves in an unresolvable dilemma. They are aware that they lack the counterbalance to the wrath of the Russian bear without the United States. At the same time, however, they fear being taken along on a journey of escalation which they cannot control and which can end badly.