The Islamic State and the Future of the Middle East

The transformations sweeping the Middle East and part of the Maghreb are something yet indeterminate, but they are changing analysis and the balance of forces.

The emergence of a new state in Iraq and Syria’s territories (the so-called Islamic State), with capacity to broaden their territory to other countries, is something so new that it completely undermines the principles of international law, since Iraq and Syria have recognized borders by all the international community.

The emerging reality, being consolidated, means that in the future the territorial integrity of the states will become problematic, and from the territory of one state there might appear new ones, without any previous situation to justify it. Besides, the purpose of the Islamic State — or caliphate — of ethnically cleansing all other religious beliefs, including Muslims, is something that will transform in an unstoppable way the composition of the countries in the region.

In fact, diverse minorities and Muslim majorities coexisted for centuries in the countries of the Middle East such as Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Libya and all over the place. In the Iraq rid of the U.S. military occupation, there was no place in the administration for the Sunnis, demonstrating the biggest error of analysis of the Iraqi situation. In Syria, Assad never fell in love with the Sunnis, the majority, since like his father he belongs to a minority community — the Alawites.

The civil war in Syria — where the Sunnis are the main bastion — will lead to an ethnic cleansing as long as the Islamic State and al-Nusra win, as we are already seeing. Christians, as well as other minorities, including Muslims, are being persecuted, expelled and murdered in Iraq and Syria.

The beheading of 21 Coptic Christians in Libya, the attack at a museum in Tunis and the suicide attacks in Sanaa are the faithful mirror of Islamic State horrors. The Islamic State was created by the terror of war. Their world revolves around violence.

These organizations sought support in diverse and shocking quadrants: to defeat the Sunnis in Iraq, George W. Bush allied with the Shiites, giving them power. In Afghanistan, in order to overthrow the secular regime, he armed Osama bin Laden and the Taliban. These decisions had the support of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Moreover, these two countries are behind the support to the jihadists in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya.

The arms that the USA, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey sent to fight Assad’s regime fell into the hands of the Islamic State and al-Nusra, whether by purchase or through violence.

Turkey and the USA made a deal to provide arms to the so-called Free Syrian Army in late February, even after everything that is going on in the region and knowing well that there is no other option besides Assad, especially when he dominates 13 out of the 14 provincial capitals.

If the USA, France and European Union policy and allies are trying to dismember states, launching them into devastating civil wars, taking them to ethnically pure territories and making them live with rules and traditions from the times of the caliphate, there can be no doubt that this is the way. Sooner or later, Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan and Lebanon will enter the cycle of identical transformations.

Of the 19 hijackers who attacked the planes on Sept. 11, 15 were Saudis. Not even one Syrian or Iraqi. The terrorist attacks in France and Denmark were perpetrated by French and Danish people.

A new focus is needed that doesn’t involve the message of bombs or bombing, but instead an approach that fixes problems which seem to have no solution due to lack of courage and commitment. John Kerry’s statements, finally admitting that Assad is part of the solution, may have weight to end the crisis in Syria.

Without an independent Palestine and a new cooperation based upon mutual respect and reciprocity of the advantages, as well as a real integration of immigrants in Europe, there is no answer to jihadism. There will be more of the same in new doses of terrorism.

The West seems to go blind when regimes which are not dear to them rule in some countries. This blindness has led the USA to invade and occupy them. The outcome is clear for all to see: these countries now live with absolutely no rights, in the cruelest terror. It is under these circumstances that terrorism grows.