The China-U.S. Relationship at a Crossroads
Discussions about the China-U.S. relationship have become heated recently, and scholars are pessimistic about the outlook. Most people believe a new cold war has begun, and that many Chinese need to abandon their fantasies and prepare for battle.
It is true that the China-U.S. relationship is currently riddled with pitfalls. The American government may look courteous, but it has shifted to being hawkish from the passive-aggressive moves of the past. A strategy of contact and prevention has changed to total prevention, and maybe even containment. Economy-wise, America is using the Trans-Pacific Partnership as an alternative to China, and military-wise, America has strengthened its planning in its first and secondary island chains. Chinese academics now harbor stronger doubts about America, and the Chinese government is preparing a Plan B. This is because when the relationship is at a crossroads, things could either improve or rapidly decline.
The main reason for the change is that China rose too quickly, faster than the American elite had predicted. China’s influence has eroded America’s hegemony across the globe; of course, America wants to maintain its leadership in Asia and the rest of the world, and China is the most likely to challenge America’s interests. The structural conflict between a big power maintaining its status quo and a big power on the rise is becoming more evident every day. More and more Americans are unhappy being surpassed by China and are asking their government to adjust its policies toward China; they think America should take preventative measures. Long-standing anti-Chinese forces are aggressively agitating to curb China on all fronts and aiming to weaken China. Even though there is no evidence of the American government enacting China-curbing policies yet, the current state of the China-U.S. relationship is obviously more risky than 10 years ago, and it is becoming more hazardous every day.
America Is Adjusting to a China on the Rise
My opinions about the China-U.S. relationship are different. There are structural problems in the relationship, but theories in international relations present vastly different views about the shift of power. One view promotes the belief that a rising power would have to challenge a traditional power, with the final outcome being conflict and even war. However, the other view promotes the thought that if the traditional power and the new power do not feel threatened and could consider the other’s interests and try to meet them, then the traditional power would be willing to share the power. The new power could share responsibilities as well as power, and be willing to accept existing international rules and behavioral guidelines. A military conflict could be prevented.
If we overly emphasize the conflict in the China-U.S. relationship and do not see the increasingly combined interests for both countries, then we will realize our own nightmare. We should realize that in the past century, America has given an enormous amount of help to China, and the international structure built and led by America is not in conflict with China’s interests as a rising power. In the past 30 years, the Chinese economy has benefited from the system America has maintained, as well as from America’s positive responses toward a modernizing China. For China, participating in the current system, learning the rules of the game, and making some necessary adjustments and changes will cost less and have more benefits than starting something new.
America may see China as a competitor and is worried about China’s intentions after its rise, but China is not seen as an enemy yet. This situation is vastly different from the U.S.-Russia relationship during the Cold War; we still have quite a bit of room for preventing the relationship from worsening. The American government is mostly aiming for prevention today. We should not treat ourselves as America’s main opponent, and take over the Soviet Union’s old role. After years of development, the China-U.S. trade relationship is very tight-knit, and nongovernmental communications are also extensive; the many beneficiaries and business elite would not want to see China and U.S. in conflict. At the same time, America is a pluralist society, and viewpoints and interests are not always tied together. There are pro-China, cautious-toward-China, anti-China and other views and groups at play. There may be extremist anti-China views present, but they are not the majority.
In fact, America is adjusting to a rising China. For a long time, America looked down on China; only recently has it started to see China as an equal. Quite a few Americans are uncomfortable with this fact, which is natural. In addition, the American elite have a deep-rooted bias and distrust toward the Chinese government. Learning to adjust to a “China on the rise” will indeed be a conflict-ridden period. Yet, even if the two countries were bound to have many conflicts in upcoming days, they are tightly wrapped around each other. There is both competition and partnership in the relationship, and there may be arguments, but no one can live without the other. Wisdom is needed to manage the increasingly complex relationship: how to work together in the conflict, how to survive within the competition, and how to prevent derailment. This is especially true in a time when social forces in both countries are increasingly prone to suspicions.
Wisdom and Sense of History Needed in Managing China-U.S. Relationship
We have to realize that while China may have made amazing strides, it still very much lags behind America in its overall strength. America has significant advantages in high-tech, higher education, research and development, the financial system, the military-industrial industry and other areas. There have been problems in recent years with a rising income gap, high unemployment, fiscal deficit, rising debts, and a deformed medical system. The political party system and the constitutional framework may be able to prevent absolute power, but after a long time, they could also lose their efficacy and stop working altogether. However, there are self-correcting mechanisms in the American system, which is still quite stable, and its society is very vibrant — far from some people’s belief that it is declining.
In the last half-century, America has survived three periods of major self-doubt. The first time was in the ’50s, when the Soviet Union’s launch of its man-made satellite made the American elite worry they were being surpassed; the second time was in the early ’70s, when the fuel crisis, the Vietnam War and the stagnant economy made Americans fear their replacement by Western Europe; the third time was in the second half of the ’80s, when the American elite worried that Japan was surpassing them in economy and technology. Today, American society’s worry about a rising China could be considered its fourth period of anxiety after World War II. It really is a historic unknown whether these concerns about China’s rise will be realized; the Chinese elite should be clear about the historical implications.
The Chinese’s increasing national pride and the overly optimistic assessments about the American financial crisis and the international structure after the European debt crisis has made some people think China could soon reach or even surpass America. We should realize that while there are problems in the West, the social conflicts and problems we have accumulated in the last 30 years from reform and opening up are also accelerating, so we need to make a concerted effort to understand our own problems and do well for ourselves.
In summary, the rise of China needs a stable China-U.S. relationship. The territorial conflict does not need to be solved today; if we can achieve our rise, time is on our side. America is a very pragmatic country; when China’s combined strength really surpasses America, America will retreat and give us some room. However, this requires from us today our patience, excellent political and diplomatic wisdom, and historical sense.
The author is Director of the Social Sciences Institute and Political Science Professor at the University of Macau.
A very polite and generous analysis — like many from China I’ve read (even if it does infantilize the US). But I don’t agree that the US is not in decline. And, moreover, an empire in decline is at its most dangerous.
Washington suffers from EDD — Enemy Deficit Disorder — as seems clear from the way in which it finds it necessary to exaggerate the threat from terrorism; the way the neoconservatives, the Republicans, and even many Democrats keep egging Obama on to start a war with Russia; and the way it keeps trying to provoke China into being the new Evil Empire.
The American state has no time for the American nation: the state no longer invests in its public institutions or its rotting infrastructure; instead, it keep shoveling ever more money into sinkholes like Homeland Security, the surveillance system, the Pentagon and the military more generally.
Instead of diplomats, Washington turns diplomatic posts into sinecures for the biggest campaign donors — e.g., they send Caroline Kennedy to Japan, and she can’t even speak Japanese. But having sold the government to the highest bidder, there are lots of people who want favours in return.
But, hey, what do I know. I’m not even American. Like most of the authors represented on this site, I’m looking at the US from a distance.