US Primaries: Tight Duels in Iowa

On Monday, Feb. 1, Iowa officially kicks off the race for the Democratic and Republican nominations for the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 8. This Midwestern state holds the first of the “caucuses” (public meetings where participants vote). The candidates must try to mobilize their voters until the very last minute. Eight of them have thus begun dispatching their teams and traveling early on Monday before the official start of the caucuses, set for 7 p.m.

The results of two battles are particularly anticipated: The first pits real estate mogul Donald Trump against Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. According to the results of the latest survey by the legendary Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer for The Des Moines Register, Mr. Trump has a small lead over Mr. Cruz. The survey, published on Jan. 30, found that 28 percent of voters planned to vote for the billionaire, compared with 23 percent for the ultraconservative senator, [both] far ahead of another senator, Marco Rubio, from Florida.

The second battle is even closer. On the Democratic side, it pits Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders against the favorite, Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state. Clinton, who outdistanced her rival by more than 50 points before the summer, now has only a very small lead according to the same survey: 45 percent of the vote, compared to 42 percent for Mr. Sanders, a difference equal to the margin of error.

Although Mr. Sanders and Mr. Trump have succeeded in important public assemblies in Iowa in recent weeks, the nature of their potential voters, however, raises questions about whether this translates into mobilization at the polls. The Vermont senator is largely supported by young voters whose participation is often lower than those in other age groups, and his support is concentrated in the state’s college towns. Similarly, Mr. Trump benefits from the support of voters who are white, less educated, and of modest incomes. On the other hand, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Cruz generally have appeal that crisscrosses the totality of this rural state.

Next Up, New Hampshire

The conservatism of Republican voters in Iowa, who are more religious than those in other states, has traditionally been an asset for candidates like Mr. Cruz, who campaign on values. However, Mr. Trump is managing to channel the frustration of these same voters by promising the return of a mythical golden age and blurring the dividing lines within the Republican Party. The more moderate main candidates (Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and John Kasich) are betting on the next step on Feb. 9 in New Hampshire, which, as a less conservative state, is more favorable to them.

The unexpected popularity of Mr. Sanders, who campaigns on promises of a higher minimum wage, free higher education and universal health care, reflects the identity of progressive Iowa Democrats. The Vermont senator may also benefit from the resurgence of a controversy that continues to embarrass his rival: the use of a personal email address and a private server during her tenure at the State Department from 2009 to 2013. On Jan. 29, a State Department spokesman confirmed that 22 emails that were transmitted by this server contained information classified as top secret. Mrs. Clinton’s campaign team, which had previously stated the opposite, tried to argue that these emails had been retroactively reclassified by U.S. intelligence agencies.

Taking into account these sociological characteristics, the results of the Iowa caucuses generally do not predict the outcomes of the primaries (where voting is done by secret ballot) or the other caucuses to come. However, Daniel Yepsen, a former political columnist for The Des Moines Register, emphasizes that an initial victory can help to change the hierarchy in the two camps. In the past, on the Democratic side, Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama, both little known at the time, were able to take advantage of their Iowa victories in 1976 and 2008 [respectively], to assert themselves as credible contenders for the nomination before ultimately winning the presidential election.