In an article for The National Interest magazine, Henry Kissinger, one of the most outstanding diplomats of the past and present, former national security adviser, and former U.S. secretary of state, has offered the United States and Russia a chance to think about a new concept of strategic partnership and global political balance. In particular, the former diplomat said that Russia should be recognized as an integral part of any new construction designed to maintain security in the world. Russian political experts consider Kissinger’s position as proof that the American political establishment is prepared to review the current conflict with Russia, including the sanctions war, the situation in Ukraine, and the Syrian conflict.
Kissinger estimates that current U.S.-Russian relations are more negative now than they were 10 years ago and, in his opinion, they are probably even worse than they were before the end of the Cold War. Regarding the situation in Ukraine, he noted that this country must become a bridge between Russia and the West, but certainly not an outpost for one of the parties. The events in Ukraine over the past two years have undoubtedly led to the sharp worsening of U.S.-Russia relations and the imposition of sanctions on both sides.
According to Russian experts, this article, which was released two days after the former American diplomat’s visit to Russia where he conducted a personal meeting with Vladimir Putin, might be considered as indicative of how American political leaders — or at least some of them — are realizing the hopelessness of further confrontation with Russia, which causes damage not only to Moscow but also to Washington. Moreover, the need for closer and more constructive dialogue can be explained by the need to make collective decisions about the fate of Syria.
In particular, Konstantin Polyakov, a researcher for the Center for Strategic and Political Studies, a public policy research institution, believes that this article by the diplomatic heavyweight may indicate a willingness by U.S. officials to consider the positions of all parties, including Russia, in resolving the Middle East crisis.
“I believe that today’s announcement by the U.S. political veteran Henry Kissinger that appeared in the media is a good signal for the major players in the Middle East. Perhaps this shows the intention of the U.S. administration to resolve differences ‘amicably’ — as much as such an outcome is possible. Such interference can be explained by the United States’ concern that the conflict in the Middle East threatens to cause serious complications for world security,” said Polyakov. “I also want to note that Russian-American relations currently need the participation of the veterans of world politics like Henry Kissinger, who once stood at the beginning of the restoration of Russian-American relations, especially in the discussions that created the new power balance and the regulation of geopolitical differences that emerged between the major world powers.”
The political scientist and member of the Civic Chamber of Russia, Sergey Markov, sees several trends in Kissinger’s position.* First of all, as noted by the expert, the article by the U.S. politician in The National Interest indicates that in the United States there is a serious group of people who are unhappy with the artificially unleashed conflict with Russia.
“This group is pushing the patriarch of American diplomacy to interfere. Secondly, this is kind of a confrontation between diplomatic schools; Henry Kissinger belongs to the school of realists in American foreign policy. He is its intellectual leader. And this school is opposed to the conflict with Russia that is supported by the neoconservatives, who believe that the United States should enslave everyone,” Markov says. “Kissinger is committed to the theory of American patronage for the sake of maintaining the global balance, which is impossible without a dialogue with Russia. Thirdly, he has longstanding good relations with Putin, and to some extent protects him. And, fourthly, he is a very old man, who remembers World War II and the Vietnam War. From the perspective of age-old wisdom, he does not want to allow a new Cold War.”
International policy expert Alexei Martynov is not as optimistic as his colleagues. He said that Kissinger’s article is evidence that the U.S. does not intend to give up its influence on the situation in Ukraine.
“Despite the respect for Kissinger as a living legend of world politics, and the respect for the productive theses expressed by him, we should not forget that he still remains a purely American politician. The United States is now beginning the active phase of its election process, and Kissinger has a certain political influence. He proposed making Ukraine the new geopolitical zone of conflict, a zone which was once the Middle East. Kissinger’s words are consonant with the opinion of those American politicians who are in power, but they use different words,” said Martynov. Translated into Russian, this means that the U.S. sees Ukraine through the prism of a bipolar world, legitimizing it as another field of conflict. None of this is news for us, as the final verdict on Ukrainian statehood will be something that of course, we do not want.
Oleg Matveychev, political analyst and professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, believes it would be nice if the American authorities listened to the opinion of the authoritative peacemaker, but this is unlikely to happen.**
“Despite the fact that Kissinger is always committed to the interests of the United States, he is a supporter of various negotiating schemes. But the current administration — the youth — do not listen to him, and have not done so for a long time. He has lost his influence and importance,” the expert believes.
*Translator’s Note: The Civic Chamber of Russia is a state institution with 126 members created in 2005 to analyze draft legislation and monitor the activities of the parliament, the government, and other bodies of Russia and its Federal subjects. It has a role similar to that of an oversight committee, and has consultative powers.
**Translator’s Note: The National Research University Higher School of Economics is one of the leading universities in Russia and one of the largest. The university specializes in economics, social sciences, mathematics, computer science, media communications and design.
Putin and his cronies are leading Russia on a trip to self-destruction in the name of imperial glory. The U.S. has little interest except to contain the damage from these Russian adventures and then wait for Putin to exhaust his army, his citizens and his treasury.