This article will not introduce basic information about Donald Trump because many readers are already familiar with him, but instead I will emphasize the following topics:
– The current reaction of American society toward Trump;
– Is Trump really a suitable presidential candidate for the Republican Party? Is there any way for the Republican Party to attack Trump?
– If the majority of the mainstream media and public dislike Trump, how has he gained so many votes? What kind of American supports Trump?
– If Trump is elected president, what will America be like?
Current Reaction of American Society Toward Trump
During last week’s Super Tuesday, Trump won in seven states, which was a watershed moment in the election. Before this, not many people had taken Trump seriously even though he repeatedly led in opinion polls. Many media outlets even provided analysis that completely differentiated between opinion polls and actual elections, and reported that the people who support Trump generally have a low voter turnout, noting that during the actual election, they will not vote for Trump.
But what is the actual situation? During Super Tuesday, there were 8 million Republicans who voted in contrast to 5.5 million Democrats. Looking at Super Tuesday in 2008, there were 5 million Republicans and 8 million Democrats; the numbers have reversed. Trump has a powerful ability to mobilize the voters, bringing those who don’t usually vote onto the political scene.
As of Super Tuesday, people realize that they can no longer take Trump as a mere joke; his chance of getting elected is growing larger and larger.
After Super Tuesday, according to Google’s data editor, the searches for “how can I move to Canada” on Google spiked by 350 percent in four hours. This event was immediately reported by many popular media outlets, and that search multiplied 10 times during the remainder of the week.
A Toronto City Council member even tweeted that he welcomes all Americans, and included a link to the official Canadian immigration site. This tweet was re-tweeted nearly 50,000 times.
But this event should only be viewed only as humorous commentary. First, during every election in the past, the search for “how can I move to Canada” on Google has increased as a demonstration of disappointment. Second, many people conduct such a search simply out of curiosity.
The “big guys” of the Republican Party are all agitated as well. Presidential candidates from previous elections, Mitt Romney and John McCain, both publicly criticized Trump, warning the public not to vote for him. On March 2, more than 70 Republicans with prominent positions signed a petition saying that if Trump really does become the Republican presidential candidate, they will instead vote for Hillary Clinton (or Bernie Sanders).
And with respect to Trump’s vow of using severe punishment on terrorists and their family members (which is illegal and violates international human rights), retired statesmen of the U.S. Army said that if Trump is elected, the Army could possibly refuse to carry out his orders.
Former New York mayor and billionaire Michael Bloomberg said recently that he will not run for president as an independent. Bloomberg has an excellent reputation, having showed his abilities during his tenure as mayor of New York. During every recent presidential election, many people encouraged Bloomberg to participate, but he never joined the race.
Initially, Bloomberg did want to join this time, and he even created a campaign slogan. But now he has indicated he was deciding against running because the numerical model predicts that if Trump really did become the Republican candidate, Bloomberg’s participation would definitely take votes away from the Democratic candidate (whether it is Clinton or Sanders), that objectively it would in fact provide an advantage for Trump in winning the election, and that in good conscience, he could not accept such a result.
Is Trump Really a Suitable Presidential Candidate for the Republican Party? Is There Any Way for the Republican Party to Attack Trump?
There are two key numbers: 1237 and eight. We will discuss each one in turn.
The American presidential election is the most complicated and time-consuming election in the world. Even many Americans are confused about the long list of rules. It is also different for different parties and states. I will only talk about the basic rules of the election in this section.
Currently, the primary elections are taking place in individual states to select the presidential candidate for each party. This process is more interesting to examine because everyone can vote, and the votes are counted state by state. After the primaries, the party candidate that wins goes on to a general election for the presidency on Nov. 8.
Take the Republican Party as an example. The party’s presidential candidate will be selected July 18 at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. A total of 2,472 people will be participating in this convention, and each state is assigned a certain number of delegates whose vote is weighted as one. To win the party’s nomination, the Republican presidential candidate must secure more than half the votes, or 1,237.
Yet, generally speaking, this process is merely “show” because the voters can only distribute their votes based on the result of their states’ primary election (the ones that are happening now). How do they distribute the votes? Some states distribute votes proportionately. For example, the state of Virginia has 49 seats, and these 49 seats will be distributed based on the ratio of the primary election results. Because Trump won more than 34.7 percent of the vote, he gained 49 times 34.7 percent, or 17 votes. The four other candidates won 16, 8, 5, and 3 votes respectively. Some states apply the “winner takes all” rule, meaning that the candidate with the most votes wins all the votes at the convention. For example, South Carolina has 50 seats, and because Trump received the most votes during the state’s primary election, he gets all 50 votes at the convention, and the other candidates do not gain anything.
[Ed.: Please go to the original article to view the graphic in question.] The states in dark green are those states that operate as “winner take all” states. There are other complications that I will not explain in this article.
Therefore, if you add all the votes that each candidate gained in the primary elections, that adds up to the candidate’s final vote at the convention. This means that before the convention even begins, the party’s presidential candidate has in fact been decided.
Now, the first thing that the Republicans have to do is to prevent Trump from gaining power in individual states and stop him from gaining more than 1,237 votes.
In the primaries that have taken place to date, Trump has gained 384 votes, Ted Cruz (who is in second place) has 300 votes, and the other two candidates have 151 votes and 37 votes.
If any of the other candidates eventually wins more than 1,237 votes, that candidate will become the Republican candidate, and Trump with be eliminated from the race, which is the most ideal situation for the party.
But if no one wins more than 1,237 votes, then there will be a second round of voting. This time, the delegates at the convention will be able to vote at their own discretion, rather than on behalf of the states. Therefore, what the Republicans need to do now is to let people who are against Trump attend the convention and eliminate Trump in the second round.
The worst scenario is that Trump gets 1,237 votes; however, the Republicans can still find a way out. Such a situation exists because in the Republican Party’s rules provide that the candidate must win more than a majority in at least eight states. In addition, the rule can be amended at any time. For example, if Trump does win the majority in eight states, the Republicans can change the minimum state rule to nine.
Another bit of good news is the fact that some states use open elections, meaning that voters who are not Republicans can also participate in a Republican election. A large proportion of Trump’s votes have come from independent voters. Many states that have not yet held a primary use a closed election, which means only members of the Republican Party can vote. Undoubtedly, Trump’s support will diminish.
As we analyze it, it will still be rather difficult for Trump to become the Republican presidential candidate. Nevertheless, the Republicans cannot be ruthless. If it comes to the point where Republicans have to alter the rules to regulate Trump, it could backfire with citizens, and the situation could become difficult. Apparently, the Republicans are already preparing a police force to deal with convention day, fearing riots. Even if there are no riots, the morale of Republican members may be shattered as well.
If the Majority of the Mainstream Media and Public Dislike Trump, How Has He Gained So Many Votes? What Kind of American Supports Trump?
This is a question that many foreigners have, and Americans themselves do not have an answer. What is Donald Trump? Who exactly are his supporters?
In the past few days, the large American media companies have conducted many interviews with Trump supporters and have drawn many analyses. That Trump has a personality which provokes anger is merely one aspect. The most important reason for Trump gaining votes is that many Americans are extremely disappointed with the situation today: the increase in the income gap, lagging salaries, the lack of jobs, the decrease in the quality of life, the frightening debts to other countries, health insurance policies, and the surge of immigrants that directly lowers the quality of life of Americans (at least that is what they think …).
The disappointment felt by today’s society has led to its disappointment in politics. In the elections of past decades, every politician claimed that he or she would rebuild the American dream and make America a greater country. Nevertheless, after they are elected, again and again, they disappoint Americans more than ever. Many people have begun to realize that regardless of whether the president is a Republican or a Democrat, this country relies on, respects, and serves those who are in society’s top 1 percent.
They feel that Washington, the White House, and elitist politicians have tricked them.
What makes the matter worse is that they feel the current insistence on political correctness in U.S. society has reached a point of being abnormal. It is everywhere, and many people are already overwhelmed. They no longer want to be endlessly “generous,” “multicultural” or “caring.”
You have complaints as a society, and you cannot complain. You cannot complain about the immigrants stealing your opportunities, you cannot complain about Asian kids taking away a seat in an Ivy League university, you cannot complain about the high crime rates among African-Americans … Regardless of what you say, even if you are just simply telling the truth, you are chastised for being “politically incorrect.”
And now, there is a careless “big mouth” that says we have to build high walls on the border of Mexico, we have to exile all the illegal immigrants, we have to be tougher on China. “Being politically correct is this country’s big problem, I don’t have to be politically correct,” he says.
And this person does not have any political background, unlike other candidates who are either senators or congressmen. Those Republican candidates, “we like none of them, and we do not want to choose any, they are the same.”
And this person is a successful businessman, so he will be able to revive the economy.
It is possible to imagine that many people have found an outlet for their suppressed anger, seeing Trump as their voice. Trump talks ruthlessly and makes stupid mistakes that we consider to be ignorant, but for his supporters, he expresses integrity that sharply contrasts with the deceitfulness of politicians. Trump appears to be one with those who come from a grassroots background. He is the careless Don Quixote.
What his supporters do not realize is that Trump’s “talk” is full of holes and cannot actually be effective.
Other than the large percentage of supporters who have “low-income” and a “low education,” there are also supporters who are not oblivious to Trump’s stupidity. Nevertheless, they still want to use Trump to fight against the depressing political correctness in today’s American society. This is Trump’s supporter at a rally hosted in a college. [Ed.: Please go to the original article to view the photograph.]
“The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing noncompetitive.”* Recently, there are many personal statements made by Trump supporters on the media, many of whom are from an upper-middle class background. What they have in common is that they are afraid of letting people around them know that they support Trump, and during interviews they request anonymity.
A young woman of Cuban background stated, “Political correctness is the birthplace of disastrous, un-American policies that will destroy the country in a death by a thousand cuts. But here comes Trump, the first person who didn’t even blink when the machine turns its sights on him. He didn’t just fight back. He chewed it up and spit it out.”
A 50-year-old college professor said, “I’m a liberal left college professor in the social sciences. I’m going to vote for Trump but I won’t tell hardly anybody. My main reason is anger at the two-party system and the horrible presidencies of Obama and Bush. But I’m also furious at political correctness on campus and in the media. I’m angry at forced diversity and constant, frequently unjustified complaints about racism/sexism/homophobia/lack of trans rights. I’m particularly angry at social justice warriors and my main reason to vote Trump is to see the looks on your faces when he wins. It’s not that I like Trump. It’s that I hate those who can’t stand him.”
A 48-year-old California scientist moved to San Francisco from the United Kingdom in 2000. He is a citizen now, and he voted for Obama. He is a closet Trump supporter, and he hasn’t told any of his friends or co-workers. “They would think of me as a meat-head if they knew.”
A 56-year-old casino supervisor commented that “in the Nevada election Trump won 46 percent of the Hispanic vote and the reason is because the legal Hispanic voters also have to compete with the illegal immigrants for jobs.”
A 29-year-old yoga instructor said that “it isn’t a vote for Trump, but rather a vote against the political establishment (which must be removed from office at any cost — even if it means electing a reality TV star for president). The stakes are too high. Hillary cannot win or the oligarchy will continue unabated. And please don’t publish my name, it would ruin the whole ‘progressive’ image and my girlfriend might kill me.”
A retired biomedical engineer commented that he believes that Clinton will continue the Wall Street-style march to oligarchy. “With her, the eventual demise of democracy will lead to a fascist plutocracy. It is going on right now, and it will continue to be slow, painful and inevitable. I believe that it is too late for a conventional cure. So, there is Trump. He is indeed a buffoon and a recipe for disaster. If he were to do half of the horrific things he says he would, he would be a catastrophe. He could be a blend of Hitler and Hirohito. That’s why I would vote for him. The last time we crossed paths with a Hitler and/or Hirohito, the country woke up and fought. And won! He might supply us with the shock we need in order to wake up and fight,” he said.
The 20-year-old Arab Muslim student said that “as a gay Muslim, the Republican Party has not been kind to me, to say the least. However, the Democrats almost arrogantly expect me to hand my vote to them because of who I am, which insults me. My parents are horrified at the thought of a Trump presidency. They say things like ‘Trump is going to round up all the Muslims and put them in camps.’ For all his bombastic remarks, Trump will not attack innocent Muslim countries. Ironically enough, he may be the best thing for moderate average Muslims.”
This handsome 18-year-old boy is in favor of Trump. [Ed.: Please go to the original article to view this photograph.]
A 52-year-old manager, who is “fairly well educated — master’s degrees from Harvard and the University of South Carolina, with an income in the upper 10 percent — says that not even his wife knows he supports Trump. “If elected, Trump would accomplish very little to none of his vacuous agenda … So what good could result? Perhaps more people would begin to realize that members of Congress, governors, mayors, and members of the state houses have the real power. That the framers of the Constitution created this wonderfully balanced system in which no one person holds the kind of power that Trump claims he could wield. That democracy is messy and frustrating. That change involves more hard work than just voting for somebody who says the right things.”
If Trump Is Selected, Will He Be Able to Defeat Clinton? If He Does, What Will America Be Like?
Because this article is already so long, I will just summarize this section.
The honest answer is that I do not know if he can defeat Hillary; no one knows the result. In crazy times like today, the traditional wisdom may no longer be useful. Especially after reading the interviews with Trump’s supporters, I began to realize that the possibility is very great. Clinton herself has critical flaws, such as acting logically without any emotion, and she does not have much affinity with voters, which is Trump’s greatest advantage.
Nevertheless, even if Trump is elected, America will not disintegrate because it is controlled by the tripartite system. The American president does not have enough power to be a ruthless tyrant. Considering that both Democrats and Republicans dislike him, regardless of which party ends up taking over Congress, in the future, Trump will experience resistance from various directions.
The most ideal situation is that after Trump gets nominated, he will correct his nonsense during the general election. In the past, during every presidential election, candidates have used harsh words to attract attention; but after he is elected, those words are typically left behind and the president becomes much more responsible.
In fact, Trump’s stance in many political issues is undefined, and he has frequently changed his position the next day; such a situation has occurred frequently during recent months.
Kevin Spacey, who starred as the presidential character Frank Underwood in the political drama “House of Cards,” even made fun of Trump in a talk show for being completely ignorant of politics because Trump claimed that he learned about politics through TV shows.
In the worst case scenario, Trump will arouse the animosity of many people after he gets elected because he is so ruthless and pompous with respect to diplomatic relationships, and he will exacerbate the conflicts between the United States and China or other countries.
In the world today, extreme right-wing parties are rising in power by appealing to populism and nationalism. China’s nationalistic spirit right now is also at its height. Trump’s appearance on the scene can be viewed as a way that America is supporting this common global trend. Ideologies that are open, forgiving and multicultural are increasingly the subject of controversy and derision, and are losing support. Populism, xenophobia, hard-willed nationalism, tyranny are taking over.
Perhaps, the good days will soon be over.
*Editor’s note: Although correctly translated, this quote could not be independently verified.
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