An Unsettling Mood in the South China Sea on the Brink of Conflict

After the South China Sea issue entered arbitration, the U.S. and Japan used it in Southeast Asia to contain China, and the U.S. and South Korea deployed the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system in Northeast Asia, intensifying conflicts between China and the U.S, while an arms race between the countries around the South China Sea unfolded. The South China Sea matter entered a strange world in an unsettling and tense mood, and a potential “arsenal” full of warships and oil tankers.

After the Cold War, no great military powers emerged around the South China Sea; China and the countries in Southeast Asia lived in harmony for 20 years. Then, beginning in 2009, the U.S. noticed China’s rapid development of its naval and air forces in the South China Sea, with new models of destroyers and nuclear submarines going into service there. The U.S. took notice, and therefore shifted its strategic focus from the Middle East to East Asia.

When the U.S. declared the Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy, the South China Sea bade farewell to the post-Cold War power vacuum. The U.S. was worried about China expanding its military force, especially the expansion of a submarine base at Hainan Island, a home port to the latest diesel-electric submarines and nuclear ballistic missile submarines. Throughout the South China Sea arbitration, the U.S. challenged China’s “historical theory of rights.”

From land rights to maritime expansion, China has faced containment from the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines, which directly and indirectly contributed to the escalation of the South China Sea conflict as the U.S. and China’s open confrontation and even regional conflicts have become worrisome. In addition, the countries around the South China Sea are now also entering the arms race. Before the end of 2010, India, South Korea, and Vietnam each purchased six submarines, while Australia also planned to purchase 12 new submarines within 20 years. And before the end of 2020, the number of submarines China will have in the Pacific Ocean will exceed that of the United States Pacific Fleet.

This is an omen for the countries in the Asia-Pacific region. A military conflict is brewing in the South China Sea, and with military activities in this maritime territory becoming more frequent, occasional confrontations sparking conflicts are more probable, thus creating an “Asian arsenal.”