Could it be his embarrassing show of support for Vladimir Putin? His secret talks about payments to keep his former mistress quiet? The separation of refugee families on the Mexican border? Or maybe just his general attitude, which becomes more and more vindictive with respect to the media and his adversaries?
Whatever the cause, one thing is certain: Donald Trump just received a serious warning from his voters in Ohio. A warning that presages a true blue wave in the midterm elections on Nov. 6.
The special election held in Columbus yesterday should have been a formality. The Republican Party has continuously dominated this district for three decades. Even better, the candidate backed by Trump benefited from a 10-point lead over his Democratic rival just a few weeks ago.
However, the recent increase in the number of the president’s escapades seems to have disheartened voters. The results are so tight – with less than a 1 percent gap – that no winner has been officially declared in Ohio. In the last election, Republicans took the district by an 11-point margin.
Trump didn’t wait for the final count to declare victory in Ohio last Tuesday. But whether the Republicans win or lose, the president now finds himself weakened.
A Blue Wave
The disappointment that Ohio’s 12th Congressional District suffered provides a taste of the thrashing that Republicans could endure three months from now. The 435 House of Representative seats will be up for grabs during the midterm elections, as will a third of the Senate seats, and governor positions in 36 states.
Trump predicts a “red wave,” but the projections prove him wrong, at least in the House of Representatives. Several analysts expect Democrats to easily snatch the 23 seats needed to gain control of the House.
It will be a heated contest. Billions will be spent during election campaigns over the next three months. Trump will tweet furiously, and he will make himself seen on the ground in the most closely contested districts.
The president’s schemes will be scrutinized more closely than ever – and they heavily risk being a major influence on the issues in the elections. “No matter what games are put forth, it will truly be a referendum on Donald Trump,” as pointed out by Christophe Cloutier-Roy, a researcher specializing in the United States at l’Observatoire at the Université du Québec à Montréal.
Where Is Canada in All of This?
If a Democratic tidal wave occurs in the House of Representatives, the Trump administration will lose a good part of its leeway in enforcing its legislative platform. The president’s enthusiasm will cool, but those who fantasize about impeachment shouldn’t hope for too much, experts warn.
For Canada, a Democratic House of Representatives won’t be a gift from the heavens. The renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, one of the main points of contention between Ottawa and Washington, won’t be magically fixed with a reversal in Congress. Far from it.
The Democratic Party has often shown itself to be somewhat averse to free trade – and to NAFTA – to the extent that Trump could find an unexpected ally in his battle if the case isn’t settled before then.
In the torrent of attacks and risque revelations that threaten to burst forth between now and Nov. 6, a positive factor has emerged: a record number of women will run for office in the House of Representatives (183) and for governor (11).
This is a statistic that, perhaps, suggests a less aggressive tone from Washington for the two remaining years of Trump’s term.
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