United States Against China: A Risky Cold War

The trade war now truly risks becoming a new cold war, this time between the U.S. and China. Donald Trump has chosen the United Nations Security Council, the sanctum sanctorum of international balance, for his latest harsh remark: He accused Beijing of undermining the stability of the United States by interfering with the election process against the president’s party.

Last Sunday, the Chinese government bought four pages of advertising in the Des Moines Register, Iowa’s main newspaper, to warn its farmers: Soy producers will pay a steep price because of the inevitable trade retaliations triggered by Trump’s tariffs against Beijing, which the insert called “the fruit of a president’s folly.’’ Apparently, this was the spark that induced Trump to set yet another fire: alleging (without citing any evidence or concrete facts) that China means to alter the results of the upcoming midterm elections, whereas the president has been ignoring Russia’s massive meddling. Russia’s interference is the only one documented by U.S. intelligence agencies thus far, and also the most insidious as it was passed off as spontaneous acts by American citizens.

In times of underground cyberwarfare between powerful countries, China has certainly been making unscrupulous and dangerous choices, but there was a quality of caricature in the way the American president addressed it yesterday, with accusations that were both theatrical as well as generic, speaking to the world in tones better suited to an election rally. Twenty-four hours after the laughter at the General Assembly, it may be tempting to play down this new (calculated or emotional) attack as one of the president’s several customary outbursts: A year ago − again at the U.N. − Trump had called Kim Jong Un a rocket man and threatened to destroy his country, while this year he praised the North Korean dictator and claimed to foresee a peaceful future for that part of the world.

One may choose this interpretation, but it would be wrong. This time, the president’s offensive is aimed at a target, China, in the crosshairs of many others: from the conservatives, who fear the Asian giant’s economic and military ascent, to the radical populist left, which is fed up with globalization and views free trade as a threat against workers. To sum it up, there is much more to this than the real estate president’s fiery moodiness and his business logic applied to diplomacy. Trump’s commercial offensive against China has many supporters and certainly has its raison d’etre, considering that, while his predecessors kept silent, the Asian giant continued to benefit from the favorable treatment granted to developing countries, even though now Beijing competes head-to-head with the U.S. for the economic and technological leadership of the world. The will to curb the Asian colossus’s economic and military expansionism is growing stronger across several Washington institutions, from the White House to the Pentagon. On a strategic level, little can be done, as the conquest of the seas that divide China from the Philippines and other Asian countries is now a done deal that could be reversed only by attacking the outposts built by the Chinese in these archipelagos. The only card left to play is economic pressure on a country that has become “the factory of the world” over the last decades. China has chosen a hard line by refusing to resume trade talks after the U.S. imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of imported Chinese goods. Beijing has much more to lose, as the U.S.’s exports to China are much fewer than those crossing the Pacific in the opposite direction. The rulers of that country will have to acknowledge that it has been shortsighted to persist in dumping, violating copyrights and imposing technology transfers on those who want to enter the Chinese market. However, the trade cold war against the factory of the world will have heavy consequences for everyone, including the United States.