Military expert Alexsey Leonkov on the United States' possible military operations in Iran, fake intelligence reports and Trump’s inconsistent actions.
Donald Trump stated that he is not ruling out military operations against Iran, even though he would prefer the path of negotiations. This is a Damocles’ sword, which may or may not fall.
The Americans recently tested a bomb specifically designed for the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs. They improved and demonstrated the device; namely, they decided to send the world a message: “Look here, we’re serious - we already have a bomb, an enhanced one.”
So, is there a real threat of imminent military operations against Iran? Let’s remember the war which the U.S. and a coalition of countries led against Iraq. In the initial days of operations, they gathered nearly 750,000 personnel; of them, 425,000 alone were Americans. From the American side, the superiority of air warfare technology and cruise missiles was remarkable.
The U.S. was fastest at deploying airstrike teams. Three aircraft carriers participated at the time; that's 120 planes. Similarly, they deployed B-52 strategic bombers. The discussion at the time focused specifically on serious armed conflict.
Now there are approximately 20,000 American soldiers in the region scattered across bases in Iraq, Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. These troops represent America’s presence in the region as they conduct their various activities. Recently, they transferred a National Guard unit there to maintain military technology in the region This transfer took approximately 10 months. If the United States' intentions were serious, it would have transferred those same guardsmen more quickly.
In any case, the military operation is not proceeding all that sluggishly. If military plans are carried out, then the bulk of the troops at U.S. military bases will be sent into action. The U.S. Navy forces responsible for covering the Indian Ocean will become far more active.
Strategic bomber flights are beginning on the Diego Garcia military base along with other activity. At the moment, though, it is quiet.
There is some wavering over the military question about how to confirm the ways in which countries in the Middle East, Russia and China are reacting to the growing conflict with Iran. A variety of information about how China does not support Iran appears periodically. Subsequently, other fake information appears about how, it turns out, that Tehran has not disclosed the presence of weapons in Iran, and that it is necessary to strike Iran for these transgressions.
None of this information corresponds with reality. The same U.S. intelligence community recently convinced Donald Trump that Venezuela did not support Nicolas Maduro, and that Venezuela's army did not support a lawfully elected president, which is why an operation involving Juan Guaido was to be quick and efficient. But developments showed that U.S. intelligence agents were mistaken. I think that the same thing is happening with Iran. Trump is operating on information that intelligence provides him, but that intelligence clearly distorts the facts.
It should not be forgotten that Iran is not idly standing by, and has been watching the conflicts in the Middle East. It has observed the tactics and operations of the U.S. and coalition forces, and has observed the technology that was used in the fight, and how the battles were fought. That is why the Iranian army has reformed its operations and equipped itself with new weapons, in particular complex anti-aircraft systems purchased from Russia and China.
Iran has consistently acted to defend its sovereignty. This includes developing a navy which, if necessary, could close off the Strait of Hormuz. Iran actually has a missile program that includes medium-range missiles with a range of approximately 1,553 miles. This country has the means to respond to outright aggression.