[Jerusalem Post, Israel]

Ayande Nou, Iran

Without Wisdom, We Iranians Will 'Lose the Game'

Is Iran's political leadership acting without wisdom and courting 'catastrophe?' According to this somewhat startling op-ed article from Iran's Persian-language Ayande-Nou newspaper, 'sloganeering' and bravado on the part of Iranian politicians will not turn back the threat of the United States and its allies.

By Jamileh Kadivar*

Translated By Anonymous

January 13, 2007

Iran - Ayande-Nou  Home Page (Farsi)

Given the present circumstances, wisdom and expediency require taking steps in a more reasonable and well-thought-out manner. We should neither exaggerate our abilities nor belittle those of the enemy. As a famous proverb says, "there is no small enemy." Over recent months the trend of developments has been noteworthy.

When IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei said that the report on Iran would be referred to the U.N. Security Council, our officials, with respect to the position of some friendly countries, including Russia, China and the non-aligned countries, claimed that such a report would not be referred to the Security Council; yet, we saw that the report was so referred.

In the next stage, our officials said that the issue would not be put on the Security Council agenda; but then it was. In the third phase, our officials said that the U.N. would be unable to pass a resolution headlined "5+1=0;" and yet such a resolution was passed [5+1 is in reference to the sponsors of the Security Council resolution].

Rather than trying to wisely diminish the threat, reduce hostilities and increase our small number of allies, we chose an easier way: to sloganeer and withstand the consequences. And finally, they [Iranian officials] described the resolution as a piece of mere trash paper.

The London daily, The Times, recently published an article by Anatole Kaletsky entitled An Unholy Alliance Threatening Catastrophe , in which he analyzes the strategy of America, Britain, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Kaletsky believes that these four countries have formed an unholy alliance and he predicts a dramatic and alarming future.

But in our country, the overwhelming message of Iranian politics is that there's no need to worry. Some people say that no one can do a damned thing and that in a nuclear confrontation, America will suffer a defeat.

Interestingly, while all attempts have been made to prove that Iran's nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, our security and military officials talk of nuclear war and Iran's victory in such a war.

Just like Don Quixote , we continue to appear optimistic and disseminate information based on this vision, trying in vain to keep the morale of the people high. But it's clear that if we fail to inspect the chess board precisely; if we lack a clear understanding of the existing atmosphere; if we entertain optimism destined to lead to crisis and misunderstanding, then we will lose the game.

The prediction of the Times' columnist is noteworthy. He writes that Israel will again attack Hezbullah to settle the case in Lebanon; that the Saudi Arabian army, in coordination with America and Israel, will enter Iraq in favor of the Sunnis; and finally, that America and Israel will bombard Iran's nuclear facilities.

There is no doubt that we are in a critical situation, and our words and actions must be chosen extremely wisely. Going ahead as before, based on a deterministic vision that promises the final victory of good over evil, shows that we have neither a correct understanding of domestic developments and changes in the views of the people nor an understanding of regional and international developments.

The latest proof of our lack of understanding were statements by Bush and his secretary of state in regard to America's new strategy in Iraq and Washington's need to do something to confront Iranian interference in Iraq.

In this already tense situation, attempts are being made to add fuel to the Sunni-Shiite sectarian flames. The path to turning this problem into a catastrophe is now being paved. While public opinion in the Muslim world has been our only strong card, we are losing even this advantage due to our misinterpretation and ignorance.

While doubts of senior Sunni clerics like Farzawi [a pro-Iran Egyptian cleric] are growing, rather than hurling insults and humiliations at evil people, the maraj-e al-taqlid [top rank of Shiite clerics] and the ulema [Muslim scholars] must do something to address misunderstandings. Since it seems that wisdom is being expelled from the realm of politics, the seminaries and senior maraj-e al-taqlid must end their silence and inaction. This is necessary and inevitable.

*Jamileh Kadivar is a former member of the Majlis [Iranian Parliament ].

Farsi Version Below