By Wen-Lin Tian*

Translated By Mark Klingman

April 23, 2006
China -Beijing News - Original Article (Chinese)    

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Beijing
Warns He's 'Cruising for a Bruising.' (above)

[ NEWS PHOTOS: Iran].





Using the Most Up to Date Safety Procedures
and Equipment [NOT!], Workers in Iran Refine
Zirconium, a Key Element for Enriching Uranium.

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Recently, the Iranian nuclear crisis has once again become a media focal point. After April 11 when Iran announced the explosive news that it was now enriching uranium, the international community flew into an uproar. The United States particularly, was on pins and needles. "How to manage Iran" has become an urgent and all-too-real question for American policymakers.

U.S.A Today disclosed that the U.S. plans to hold tactical maneuvers this July, in order to allow officials at all levels to thoroughly consider possible responses to the Iranian nuclear crisis. It seems as though this is not just a case of crying wolf.

Whether or not the United States uses the option to attack depends mainly on the degree of urgency inherent in Iran's nuclear plan (whether or not they can seriously approach making a nuclear weapon), as well as the emerging trend of Iranian nuclear policy. At present, although Iran is only using low-enrichment uranium, it has basically overcome the technical hurdles of nuclear development - though, strictly speaking, Iran is far from manufacturing a viable weapon and is thus not yet a member of the "nuclear club."

According to the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] definition, the level of uranium enrichment that the Iranians have reached still doesn't go beyond the experimental stage. Experts also believe that if it uses only the equipment it currently possesses, Iran will take at least 10 years to produce enough weapons-grade enriched uranium to produce a nuclear bomb. In light of this, Iran's nuclear breakthrough is a very gradual one, with has much more symbolic than practical significance.

Therefore, as to the question of whether the U.S. will use force to arrest Iran's nuclear plans the key certainly doesn't lie in whether it tolerates Iran's "nuclear manifesto," but rather, whether Washington will "quest for Sichuan even after conquering Gansu," - that is, whether the U.S. will relentlessly carry its hard-edged anti-nuclear policy to the bitter end. Iran, for its part, has had its share of diplomatic successes, but it is playing a dangerous game of chess - or rather, Iran is like a young child playing with matches.

Compared to the muscularity of the U.S., Iran is a weak and tiny country. Nevertheless Iran currently holds several trump cards that it may use (for example, the petroleum card, the Iraq card, the geopolitics card, and so on). Iran is showing a strong and proud spirit to proceed with its nuclear ambitions, and has forced the America into this frightful gamble.

At the same time, however, Iranian nuclear policy seems to be nearing the edge of a kind of cliff. Iran has a time-tested method of courting danger that up to now, has worked. But this doesn't change the fact that it might at any moment find itself falling into confrontation.

In particular, as the sensitive question of its uranium enrichment develops, the risk of war that Iran faces grows greater and greater. In the long run, actions taken by a weak country that merely looks strong are not always going to work.

After all, what we are witnessing is not only a contest of national will, but of national strength. The U.S., as the world's sole superpower, has followed its own global strategy since the end of World War II - and with few exceptions, it has never flinched when a strategic benefit was at stake.

Will Iran Pull Back from the Precipice?


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Since Iran's Ahmadinejad took office last August, he has obviously wanted to appear as a great challenger to the established order. Take for example, his frequently-expressed candid opinions that question Israel's right to exist in the Middle East; or his refusal to yield to Western pressure on the nuclear question; or his acting as the anti-American standard bearer of the Islamic Middle East.

America sees its interests in the Middle East as the fight against terrorism; seeking nuclear non-proliferation; ensuring the safety of Israel; and preventing a major regional power from arising. Iran's get-tough policy threatens American interests. Looked at within the context of America's new focus on national security, Iran can only be regarded as the biggest single threat to those interests.

The correct road is to "alternate tension and relaxation, and alternate civilian and military affairs." Perhaps Iran will adjust its rigid policy - only then will they be able to back away from the cliff's edge.

* Wen-Lin Tian is a member of the Modern Chinese International Relations Research Institute for Asia and Africa