HOME	Where the World's Views of America Come into Focus

By Jorge Montano

April 6, 2005

Home Page (Spanish)

Since his ascent to power, the chief concern of President Hugo Chavez seems to have been to attract the attention of the United States government. And he has used every mechanism at his disposal, and every bit of old-fashioned passionate rhetoric he could muster, to do so. To his verbal efforts, he has added an alliance with the government of Cuba, and in so doing he has certainly aroused greater interest in his behavior.

In a meeting held recently at the Council of Foreign Relations in New York, a high-level State Department official commented, "Chavez will not be removed by us, as long as he continues his obligation to sell us oil."

There is sufficient evidence that despite the tremendous power [of the United States], its capacity to concentrate is limited to one issue at a time. They [the Americans] have never been distinguished for their effectiveness at paying attention to several things at once, and right now, all of Washington's attention is on the Middle East.

Suddenly, though, the Bush administration has once again turned its gaze toward Venezuela. A variety of factors explain the change in mood, but the attention is not likely to have much impact on the region. Because of the economic growth of both China and the United States, Chevez' aggressive oil diplomacy has been a success. Demand is outstripping the existing supply. With petroleum accounting for 80% of Venezuela's income, and brokerage and World Bank forecasts expecting prices between $50 and $55 per barrel over the two years, the president of the Bolivarian Republic [Hugo Chavez] is in a very strong position.

This explains threats from Caracas to reduce petroleum sales to CITGO, the U.S. purchasing agent in Venezuela, by 1.5 million barrels per day, or about 15% of America's daily usage. These threats were heard and understood by those in the Bush administration that know how hard it would be to replace that 15%. Nevertheless, if Caracas leaves the American market, it would lose the support of Washington's oil lobby, a group that has always given the [Venezuelan] government unflinching support.

Another reason the U.S. has again turned its attention south, is that the ideological map of South America is being redrawn, with Chavez, backed by the pragmatism of Brazil's President Lula, playing an active role. Brazilian investments and contracts with Venezuela, thanks to all the petrodollars, are tremendous: bridges on the Orinoco River, electrification, transportation infrastructure, etcetera. In addition, Venezuela's recent purchase of new weapons has strengthened those inside the Bush Administration arguing for a new attitude toward Caracas. At the same time, Bush has initiated a plan to make up with Argentina, after its president refused to help Washington isolate Chavez.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice sent the first signal of conciliation when she asserted that the two countries are not enemies. This time, Chavez responded with positive comments: "We share that opinion, we do not want to be the enemy of the United States." This is a step forward, after months of describing the United States as the "Evil Empire," accusing Washington of wanting to assassinate him, more than once calling Bush stupid, and referring to Rice as arrogant.

A recent summit meeting called by Venezuela and attended by the presidents of Colombia, Brazil and Spain, tells us several things. For one, it tells us that Mexico no longer carries much weight in the region, having regressed to the status of a large city in a colony [of the United States]. It is clear that the oil income Venezuela is spending on foreign purchases and investments aroused the pragmatic appetites of the summit attendees. The presence of Lula and [Colombian President Alvaro] Uribe is made more significant due to their special relationship with the White House. Spain's [President] Rodriguez Zapatero, seeking to restart a dialogue with the U.S. after his controversial decision to withdraw Spanish forces from Iraq, was careful to announce that he was only in Venezuela to see to additional purchases.

But Spain's calculation was a good one. Robert Zoellick, number two at the U.S. State Department, visited Madrid after the Venezuelan summit. President Zapatero treated him to a very formal welcome, and spent more than two hours with him, which indicates that the U.S. has apparently pardoned him for the sale of $2 billion weapons to Chavez. The sale of offensive arms  was justified as tool for fighting drug trafficking.

On the horizon it is clear that whether or not real conflict between the United States and Venezuela materializes will depend largely on if Venezuela's new weapons appear in other parts of the continent, especially in the turbulent Andean region. Internally, it is likely that the oil bonanza will continue to strengthen the populists, although this will not necessarily be true in the long term. But Chavez is pragmatic enough to know how to insure the immediate future.