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By Political Commentator Andrei Kislyakov

July 20, 2005

Original Article (English)

MOSCOW: The 2006-2015 federal space program budget approved this month gives a green light to a comprehensive research program including a Russian launch of a probe to Mars and perhaps a long-range manned space program similar to the one announced last year by the United States.

But should it be to the Moon or Mars?

Earth's Nearest Satellite

This is an important question for both Russia and the United States, and many academics in both countries suggest that the Moon should come first because it has received less study than the Red Planet.

"We have a paradoxical situation in which we know more about far-away Mars than we do about our planet's own attendant satellite," said Igor Mitrofanov, laboratory director at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Space Research Institute. "We should remember that the Moon is a potential source of various chemical elements, including rare-earth elements."

Roald Sagdeyev of the University of Maryland said that mankind should open the Moon as a place to develop cutting-edge technologies. He suggested mapping the Moon with state-of-the-art moon vehicles for deposits of raw materials using gamma spectroscopy. The moon vehicles would be best suited for this, as they can soft-land and collect all the necessary data about the Moon's surface and climate.

Soviet-era achievements in science and technology mean that Russia can still turn out the world's best automatic space probes. The legendary Lunokhod was developed at the Lavochkin science-and-production association.

"[Our association] has carried out cutting-edge R&D projects in this sphere for over 30 years, thereby amassing ample experience," said Roald Kremnev, First Deputy Director General of the Lavochkin Research Industrial Association. "Should Russia decide to resume its lunar program, it would take us a year to design a new-generation Lunokhod and another two or three years to assemble the vehicle."

Lunokhod 1, First Remote Robotic Lander

[Editor’s Note: Lunokhod 1 was the first of two unmanned lunar rovers landed on the Moon by the Soviet Union as part of its Lunokhod program. Lunokhod was the first roving remote-controlled robot to land on another world].

And yet Russia has no lunar program, but has charted out in great detail its plans to explore Mars. Two launches are planned by 2015.

"We plan to launch the Phobos Ground probe to Mars in October 2009," said Georgy Polishchuk, Lavochkin’s general director and designer at the Le Bourget Air Show [Paris]."An unmanned spacecraft will orbit Mars. The probe will land on Martian satellite Phobos, operate there for three years and return to Earth."

The second Mars launch, for which no date has been fixed, will land a probe on the Red Planet's surface. According to Polishchuk, the third phase will involve astronauts from Russia and the United States, as automated devices cannot do everything on their own.

THE ISS FACTOR

The fate of the International Space Station will have a material and psychological impact on Russia’s program. The station was designed to receive U.S. Space Shuttles, but it still isn’t clear when they will start flying again. Thus, Russia is in no position to plan annual spending and to distribute resources. Everything depends on shuttle-launch deadlines, which must happen this month or this fall at the latest, or any attempted manned American missions will fail. Moreover, the initial ISS program would remain on the drawing board.

The Martian Surface

Continued stagnation or a decision to mothball the ISS program would spark a new wave of criticism of manned space flight. Advocates of unmanned space flight would then hold sway, and backers of manned missions would be left with virtually nothing.