[The Times, U.K.]

O Globo, Brazil

Fight between Turks and Kurds

Already Resembles U.S. Invasion

"As is occurring in the south of Iraq, the bloody rearrangement of the internal situation seems to go on without the Americans - who uncovered the boiling pot of conflicts in the very complicated Middle East - without a formula, the tools or even an idea of what to do."

By William Waack

Translated By Brandi Miller

October 22, 2007

O Globo - Brazil - Original Article (Portuguese)

Anyone who has any idea about what's in the Bible – or even those that have very little idea – have heard of the place where Turkish troops (among other countries) are fighting Kurdish guerillas. It's very close to Mount Ararat, where Noah's Ark came to a standstill. It's a very mountainous region with an arid beauty that changes dramatically from one season to the next. Now, for example, only those that know how to live in the mountains can take the cold that arrives at night, in contrast to the strong heat that still reigns during the day.

And no one will survive there better than the Kurds. They are perhaps the largest group of nationless people in the world: more conservative estimates put the number at 30 million people, while the Kurds say its closer to 60 million. They are spread across Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan and Syria, and have never been entirely controlled by the governments of any of these countries, with which they regularly enter into conflict.

The Kurds have their own language and the large majority of them are Sunni Muslims, but over the last few decades it hasn't been religion that has caused them to fight amongst themselves more than against the regimes of the various countries in which they live. The Kurds have never been able to agree on who would be their leader or how to establish their own country. In that sense, their situation very much resembles what's going on in other mountainous regions such as Afghanistan and the Caucasus: a fierce tradition of independence and pride make the Kurds exceptional guerilla fighters that up to this point, no one has been able to defeat. But each of them obeys their own clan above all.

Almost everything changed with the Gulf War in 1991, which created a sanctuary for the Kurds in Northern Iraq and, decisively, with the American invasion of 2003, which seems to have given the Kurds access to what matters most in the region: oil. For the first time in many years, the two great political factions that divide Iraqi Kurds are in agreement. They even support the Shiite government in Baghdad if it will keep in check the Sunni Arabs that Saddam used to try to “recolonize” the Kurdish regions of Iraq with, and above all, guarantee the kind of autonomy that will eventually (and with oil …) make a Kurdish State viable.

That's the backdrop for the very dangerous situation that has been created with the Turkish Parliament's authorization of an invasion of Northern Iraq – which Turkish Army generals consider inevitable after Kurdish guerrilla attacks against Turkish troops in recent days. It's one of the most complicated situations that the Americans confront at the moment: the Kurds are their allies and without them, the Shiite government in Baghdad would collapse. But Turkey is also, nominally, an American ally and a member of NATO, but which is today on much better terms with Syria and Iran than with Washington.

Turkey's main problem is avoiding the emergence of a Kurdish State (with oil) that will function as a magnet for the large Kurdish minority that lives in that country. It's the same problem that Iran has had, whether it was governed by a monarchy (like that of Shah Pahlavi) or a theocracy (like the one founded by Khomeini), which has had to restrain and battle the Iranian Kurds. Neither is it in the American interest to see a Kurdish state, as such a nation could only be founded with the formal dismemberment of Iraq, which is already somewhat divided into three entities.

At the moment the situation is unclear, especially because no one seems to exercise control over the Kurds, least of all the government in Baghdad, which has promised the Turks it would do something to stop the guerillas that are attacking Turkish troops from their bases in Northern Iraq. As is occurring in the south of Iraq, the bloody rearrangement of the internal situation seems to go on without the Americans - who uncovered the boiling pot of conflicts in the most difficult region of the very complicated Middle East - without a formula, the tools or even an idea of what to do.

It could be that for the American public, the elections next year will resolve the issue of what to do with the troops, and that a Democratic government will probably bring them home on a timetable more or less agreed upon by the generals; and second, with the rulers in Baghdad.

It's more than likely that for the generals and politicians in Turkey and the Ayatollahs and Revolutionary Guards in Iran: the hour to pick up the debris and correct the chaos left by the Americans has only just begun.

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