The Obama Boys

The polls continue to show the Democratic candidate is ahead. He is preparing his team for the White House. Among the names there are many surprises, from women to a moderate Republican from New York.

Two whites, a Hispanic, at least one woman. “If Obama wins the election, as it appears probable, his administration will be the most diverse in history, especially in the four key positions in the Department of State, Defense, Treasury and Justice,” says Larry Sabato, director of the Center of Politics of the University of Virginia and the prince of American political analysts.

The collapse of Wall Street and the clouds that are thickening on the American economy seem to pave the way for Obama to the White House. The latest polls offer glimpses of scenarios that only a couple of months ago Democrats didn’t even dare to hope. For the first time in 15 years, the party could control not only the Oval Office, but also both Houses of Congress, and this time with a majority that in the Senate could reach 60 seats out of 100, in pratice the guarantee needed to be able to govern without parliamentary obstructions.

Faced with the advance of Obama, John McCain has been obliged to raise the white flag in an important state like Michigan in order to concentrate resources and men in Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Virginia, Nevado and New Mexico. Obama would need to win in only two of these states, maintaining those conquered by Kerry four years ago, to be guaranteed the White House. And today he is ahead in all six.

It is not surprising, then, if in Washington, while the electoral battle continues in its increasing ferocity, the possible post-election scenarios are beginning to be drawn up. “The most serious problems for Obama will come in January, if he really comes to the White House,” says Sabato. “In Iraq he made promises that he will not be able to keep: for him it will be difficult to bring home the troops in 16 months as he has stated in his manifesto. Then he will need a Secretary of State and a Minister of Defense with a good enough stature to be able to help the electorate deal with the change of course. Sabato says that the most logical candidate for the key role of Secretary of State is Bill Richardson, the current governor of new Mexico and ex Ambassador to the UN during Bill Clinton’s years. Richardson has many cards to play when joining Obama’s administration; he is the political representative with the highest profile for the Hispanic community in the United States. He has a lot of experience in foreign policy and he came on board with Obama, turning his back on his Clinton friends, when the race for the nomination was still uncertain. Everyone takes it for granted that Richardson will have an important role in Washington, but not necessarily in the State Department.

Thomas Mann, expert for the White House at the Brookings Institute, one of the biggest Democratic think tanks in the capital, foresees that Obama will offer the job of Secretary of State to a moderate Republican. There are at least a couple in the race; Richard Lugar and Clark Hagel, both Senators, the first elected in Indiana and the second in Nebraska, both criticized by the Bush administration, opposed to the Iraq war and with a desire to reduce the American military presence abroad. Hagel was cited for a long time as one of the possible vice presidents of Obama before the choice fell on Joe Biden. But now the widespread opinion is that at least one of the two senators will end up in a key position, either in Department of State or Defense. Thomas Mann agrees with the first hypothesis, but he finds it probable that for Defense Obama will choose Richard Danzig who is one of his primary advisors in foreign policy and was the Deputy Minister of the Navy in the Clinton administration.

This latest hypothesis was confirmed recently also by the New York Times, which cited the former deputy as the likely to make sense of the flexibility within Obama’s foreign policy. In recent interviews both Obama and Danzig affirmed that the prospect of pulling out all troops from Iraq in 16 months could be delayed if violence in the country exploded once more. Danzig then clarified that if this were to happen it would be reasonable to slow down the retreat, leaving a contingent of about 30 to 50 thousand soldiers in Baghdad, a declaration that the Times found to be authoritative, having considered Danzig to be the Minister of Defence in pectore.

Even Jonathan Schell, a prestigious name from the progressive “The Nation” and professor of nuclear issues at Yale, foreseas that Obama will choose a centrist Republican such as Lugar or Hagel for Defense. Schell is certainly not a moderate but he is deeply convinced that one of the roles of the next Democratic president will be to break the unity of the Republican party that in recent years has behaved like “a centralistic organization with a Leninist mold” and that with its “sectarianism” has been “one of the causes of the disaster of American politics.” In spite of some points of dissent, Schell considers Obama a prodigious candidate. “He is the Mozart of politics,” he says: “But even someone like him, once he arrived at the White House, could fail. The problems on the plate are enough to destory anyone: global warming, the energy crisis, 45 million Americans without health insurance, increasing poverty.”

Exactly for this reason Schell is convinced that Hillary Clinton will refuse any direct invovement in the administation. “Hillary will continue to keep her eyes fixed on the presidency in the event that Obama fails and decides not to run again in 2012. In that case, she would be the next candidate.”

This is a widely circulated opinion in the political circles of Washington. Hillary has confided to various friends that she would prefer a job in the front line of the Senate, where she could aspire to a guiding role that, until yesterday, was that of Ted Kennedy, rather than to have a job in the shadow of Obama. “Hillary could instead accept a job in the Supreme Court,” affirms Thomas Mann. At least two of the nine judges are very old and it is problable that one of them will decide to retire.

Several other women could seek to enter Obama’s administration. The Arizona governor Janet Napolitano is in the race for the role of Minister of Justice, a key position in a country that in the next months will have to face dozens, maybe hundreds of trials for the prisoners of Guatanamo. Kathleen Sebelius, governor of Kansas, could become Minister of Commerce, another decisive role in an administration that was founded on the promise (that will be hard to maintain) to review not only commerical relations with China but also the treaties of free trade with bordering countries like Canada and Mexico.

Caroline Kennedy, the 51 year old daugher of John and Jacqueline would aspire instead for the role of ambassaor to the United Nations. During the primaries, she was one of the flagships of Obama’s cause, in dozens of rallies the charisma of her father John has been associated with that of the black candidate and it is widespread opinion that if he makes it to the White House she should be repaid in some way.

But the most sought after seat is that of the Minister of Treasury currently occupied by the ex president of Goldman Sachs, Henry Paulson. In recent weeks, it has been heard that with the aggravation of the financial crisis and the package of 700 billion dollars approved by Congress to help Wall Street, Obama could re-appoint Paulson for at least one year. But it is probably only a voice that is expressing the hopes of Wall Street; “Obama has to make a clean sweep of the past; there will not even be a crumb left of the Bush administration. It will be the basic Democratic demand,” says Larry Sabato. Mann adds: “Paulson is exhausted and can’t wait to leave. In addition to him there are two other very competent candidates: in the front line Sheila Bair, the current president of the Fdic, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.”

The Bair star is rising in the world of American politics. Last month the weekly ‘Forbes’ placed her name in second place in the global classification of the most powerful women in the world, after the German Chancellor Angela Merke.

Fdic is a public organization that insures customers’ deposits in banks. Until yesterday, it guaranteed coverage up to 100 thousand dollars, but in recent days, Bair sought and obtained from Congress an increase in up to 250,000 dollars in protection. Her appointment to the Treasury is seen to be very probable, not only because Obama seems to have the intention of increasing the number of women in his cabinet, but also because Bair is also a moderate Republican, she has unstintingly defended the interests of small savers and knows how to explain finance to Americans: in recent years she has also made a name for herself as the author of two manuals that teach the art of saving to children. Furthermore she has gained the confidence of Wall Street for having conducted in person in recent weeks, the saving of Wachovia, IndyMac and Washington Mutual. But naturally, in order for everything can be rectified, one detail is still missing: Obama’s victory on November fourth.