Obama’s Wars

Learning the lessons of Iraq means learning the lessons of victory – that seems to be the U.S. military’s motto for Afghanistan. Ramp up troops in the Hindu Kush and recruit Pashtun rebels . . .

Right at the beginning of his term, President Obama met with one of his most important military advisers. Obama was briefed on the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan by General David Petraeus, Commander of the U.S. Central Command. George W. Bush started both those wars, Obama wants to end them – but without losing the American war on terror.

The situation in Afghanistan is worsening by the day. More American soldiers are dying there now than in Iraq. The United States is planning a troop surge in Afghanistan of 20,00 to 30,000 soldiers. How many of those soldiers will be American and how many will be European is still an open question.

There are currently two independent studies out, both dealing with the seriousness of the situation in the Hindu Kush. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London both warned of failure in Afghanistan. The CSIS said that only quick and decisive action could prevent the military situation from worsening there. IISS Director-General John Chipman says that western intervention in Afghanistan is faltering.

Obama is embarking on a new strategy in Afghanistan: more troops means more protection for the civilian population, and every bombing, every assassination there undercuts the Kabul government’s authority. In addition, military missions will be reduced because soldiers will no longer have to fight al-Qaeda, Pashtun rebels, the Taliban, drug lords and smugglers all at once: Pashtun tribes are to be recruited for battle against the Islamists.

The United States intends to reduce troop strength in Iraq on a massive scale while simultaneously increasing troops in Afghanistan. Military commanders under George W. Bush complained that he was neglecting Afghanistan. Behind the scenes, they complained that the real challenge was greater there than in Iraq. As early as the presidential campaign, Obama declared Iraq to be “a diversion from the real source of the conflict” in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He declared his intention to withdraw from Iraq within 18 months of taking office.

The President also discussed Pakistan with Petraeus. The Taliban and terrorists withdraw into tribal areas of Pakistan that border Afghanistan and have set up training camps and weapons depots there. In the waning days of the Bush administration, the U.S. military began attacking targets in Pakistan with rockets. Pakistan protested the attacks as violations of their sovereignty and relations between the two countries worsened. Afghanistan and Pakistan, Petraeus said, “have merged into one single problem.” Obama hopes to improve relations with the government in Islamabad.

Obama and his advisors also want to change strategy in Afghanistan as well. The Bush administration consistently supported Afghan President Hamid Karzai as Karzai’s popularity was disappearing among the general population and his leadership grew controversial even among leaders of the Pashtun, his own ethnic group. Provincial leaders scornfully refer to Karzai as “the Mayor of Kabul.” Tribal elders, warlords and Taliban commanders hold real power outside the capital city. Rumors emanating from the White House and Pentagon hold that American diplomats are keeping an eye out for a suitable replacement for Karzai.

Obama has already broken from his predecessor’s foreign policy. He gave his first television interview to the Arab al-Arabiya network. His message was clear: America will again talk to the Muslim world. Obama also announced his intention to close Guantanamo and long-range plans to withdraw from Iraq.

General Petraeus has achieved an improved security situation in Iraq by changing strategy: American soldiers now go on patrol in concert with their Iraqi army counterparts, Americans have relinquished responsibility for guarding control points and have forged alliances with Sunni militias. Revised military manuals for dealing with the insurgency now define the mission of the soldier as “armed social work.” In several regions, the Americans have already turned security responsibility over to the Iraqis completely.

Petraeus’s tactics are now to be applied in Afghanistan. The 56-year old General, who holds a degree in political science from an elite university, favors close cooperation with local powers. But Iraq and Afghanistan are only superficially similar, as the President found during his first visit to the Pentagon on Wednesday when he was told that military operations in Afghanistan will take longer and result in increased casualties. “We’re going to have some difficult decisions that we’re going to have to make surrounding Iraq and Afghanistan,” Obama said. In saying “we,” Obama was referring to NATO. At the very latest, Europe will learn at the Munich Security Conference in early February what the United States expects from its allies.