Sino-U.S. Quarrel: The Rocky Road Ahead

To a certain extent, it was a historical inevitability that a Sino-US fight would become intense. But why did China take a tough stance in 2009 on its 60th anniversary? It needs to be explained. As Peng Dingkang asked in his article, is China showing off its strength too early? As for what this means in the broader scope of things, one can only guess. There isn’t enough information to make a judgement.

Growing Strength Doesn’t Necessarily Mean Hardball

China is growing in strength fast and couldn’t play tough otherwise. Although China needs strength to play tough, it does not need to act tough just because it has strength. Choosing the right moment to be tough is affected by consequences and strategy: For example, how fierce will the conflict be? How long will it last? What sort of method is necessary? etc. All of these questions cannot be answered until after the fact. Sino-U.S. relations will not be totally controlled by either side, as can be expected. The Cold War between America and the Soviet Union went on for half a century; a Sino-U.S. “war” could last longer. At the same time, most predictions are that a Sino-U.S. “war” would go on, but not really break out. Because of a close economic relationship, a Sino-U.S. relationship will not function like U.S.-Russia one. China would not compete with America for the global hegemony and ideology like the Soviet Union did.

Although a Sino-U.S. conflict would not cause a war to break out, there would be a change in the relationship. As for the strength, historically there has been a large gap between China and America, causing China to compromise in many ways as to maintain a relevant balance in the relationship. This balance is about to be broken and a new balance more suitable for the current climate will emerge. China refused a G2 relation with America where America calls the shots, but it may accept a new G2 relationship based more on equality. This could become a dialogue platform for the West and the newly emerging economic area. However, it is inevitable that there will be bumps along the road, but hopefully they will not be too bad.

Many critics, including Ferguson, a professor of history, warned that there has always been some sort of shakeup during significant historical turns. For example, a post-American world would change the world order from single-polar to multi-polar. There would be a rough transition as the new power, a country like China, assumed its new role. The most dangerous part of such a transition is that as America would be declining economically, it would still be the world’s strongest military power. America might carry out military activity to maintain its staggering hegemony. Soros once said that if America’s resuscitation failed, it might take military action.

Preventing America’s Military Suppression

Naturally, China has tried to protect itself from America. America’s suppression strategy toward China is highly military based: During recent years, America has been continuously strengthening its West Pacific military and has carried out new military construction coupled with an Air-Sea Battle Plan. Of course CCP believes that power grows from the barrel of the gun, so anti-military suppression is always met with strong resistance. For example, it has invested large sums of money in developing its new ace weapons in order to shock others and to prevent America from really carrying out its military suppression plans.