Obama’s Katrina

There are moments in politics that can’t be anticipated but are nonetheless decisive for a presidency. Like his predecessor George W. Bush, Obama is now facing just such a moment.

George W. Bush’s reputation will always suffer because of his inaction when Hurricane Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2005. First he dallied on summer vacation for too long a time; then his administration’s crisis management skills proved to be inadequate.

Now Barack Obama is experiencing his own “Katrina Moment” and, as it was with Bush, public judgment of him will consist of two components: how he reacts in the short term, and what he’ll be blamed for in the near future. An oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico exploded 12 days ago and a safety valve that was supposed to seal off the flow of oil failed to function. The government and the Coast Guard believed the assurances of B.P.’s management that they had the emergency under control and would be able to stop the oil spill. Now a carpet of oil the size of the German state of Schleswig-Holstein threatens the basic existence of millions of people on the Gulf Coast, as well as the unique ecosystem of the Mississippi Delta. This threatens to become the greatest man-made environmental catastrophe in United States history.

Obama can’t stop the disaster. What he must do, however, is find the right words in public and take measures to demonstrate that he is addressing the problems — something Bush failed to do in Katrina’s aftermath. Much of the activity is symbolic. Could the governors of the three states affected achieve more than the better-equipped agencies in Washington? Could the fishermen already at the scene, with their expert knowledge of the area and who could also use the extra income, be of more help than the military units being mobilized to assist? In the medium term, Obama and the people need to reconsider national energy policies. More oil production at their own doorstep in order to lower oil imports is a good idea. But the risks of drilling in the high seas are greater and the consequences of accidents more severe than first thought.