America has entered a new political landscape. No, I’m not referring to the implosion of the political alliance of the left, center-left and independents that elected Barack Obama in November 2008. This alliance oscillates among disillusion, exhaustion and desertion.
I am referring instead to the tea party movement. This movement tends to be seen in Europe as a collection of groups of the radical extreme right — religious, ignorant and resentful of the way in which the U.S. and international politics are evolving.
It is indeed the case that within the tea party there are many people with populist ideas, as well as lunatics. But it is also the case that within a short period of time, this highly decentralized movement has converted itself into a political platform as popular as the Democratic and Republican Parties combined. I believe that those in Europe who regard this political constellation as a temporary aberration are mistaken. The rapid rise of this informal and spontaneous movement demonstrates that something very profound is occurring within the American political center and right.
The fuel and the enormous political passion that incites the partisans of the tea party are based on two factors. The first — the size, role and cost of the federal government and of the powers already assumed — is nearly incomprehensible in Portugal, a country in which the elites and society in general have become accustomed to living within the shadow of the State. In contrast to what occurs with the overwhelming majority of Portuguese, the supporters of the tea party are extremely preoccupied with the impact of external debt, the budgetary deficit and the cost of health and social security programs on the future of the U.S.
The second factor has to do with the consciousness that the political institutions and system have ceased to function for the common good. Public opinion polls show that American society has a negative view of Washington, Congress and the Republican and Democratic Parties. The tea party movement is a reaction against the political and institutional morass of the American capital.
If this movement is not something transitory — and I believe that it isn’t — it’s worthwhile asking two questions. First: Will the tea party itself become an influential force in domestic politics in the U.S.? Second: What will be the strategic consequences of the rise of this movement?
Starting with the first question, the tea party’s initial target was the Republican Party. This fact was very much noted in European countries and led to the conclusion that the American conservative camp was going to implode on the eve of the Nov. 2 congressional elections. Instead, we have witnessed a series of negotiations and pragmatic alliances between the tea party and the Republicans. If these alliances continue beyond 2010 and if the center is persuaded to participate, American politics will change. If this doesn’t happen, it’s highly likely that a new political force will appear in American society.
At the strategic level, we are going to witness an intense debate within the American conservative camp. At the center of this debate will be the international priorities of Washington and its defense budget. A series of influential Republicans — such as Alan Simpson, Tom Coburn, Rand Paul and Mitch Daniel — have argued that budgetary realities require a reappraisal of national security policy. In the tea party camp there are a very large number of people who agree with this position. Curiously, Sarah Palin disagrees. European capitals are full of people who hope that Palin wins this debate. Who would have thought it?
Europe better weigh in on this Tea Party business. Because these people will destroy the economy of the United States if they can and in the process of doing so could easily set off a world wide Depression.