State of the Union Address: Barack “Houdini” Obama?

Obama’s presidency seems to be at a turning point, but it’s up to him to put it right.

Police patrol the surrounding areas of the Capitol, where President Barack Obama will tonight make his annual State of the Union address. Even with the level of approval at around 53 percent, an unrivalled peak since the start of the financial crisis, Obama must find the right tone, because everything is more a question of style than of political reality.

Will the magic of Houdini be at work this evening at the State of the Union address, made by the American president, as well as in the weeks and months ahead? With a level of approval reaching 53 percent, Barack Obama has achieved unrivalled highs since the beginning of the financial crisis, but it will still require a remarkable leap of five points in less than a month. (CNN/Opinion research). He has benefited from the effects of his unifying speech on Jan. 8 in Tucson and from the Stakhanovism of the previous Congress, shown by the ratification of START, the disarmament treaty; the repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” (which forbids homosexuals to reveal themselves — and therefore to serve — in the military) and the agreement with Republicans on reducing taxes introduced by his predecessor.

Obama’s presidency appears therefore to be at a turning point, but it’s up to him to put it right. And it will not be foreign policy on show this evening but economic policy, with a backdrop of the presidential elections in 2012.

A Rarely Discussed Foreign Policy

Foreign policy will not be at the forefront of the State of the Union address. The few successes in this domain have been quickly forgotten (like the improvement in relations with Russia, the affirmation of public diplomacy to restore the image of the United States, the improving situation in Iraq and the outcome of the START Treaty), while failures are not really the high premiums to count among the liabilities of the administration (such as the maintenance of Guantanamo, the poor management of the Isreali–Palestinian situation, the growing disagreements with China).

Five crucial subjects however, will remain at the heart of American foreign policy in the coming months: the military gesticulation of North Korea, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Pakistan’s instability, the fall of Afghanistan — the longest war to date in the history of the United States — and Yemen, with a theme of a hypothetical terrorist attack on American soil that could radically alter the course of the presidency.

Revitalization of the Economy

A heightened unemployment rate could cost a reelection, just as it did with Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. This is without a doubt the reason that Barack Obama has been increasing maneuvers toward the center and the world of business for several weeks. The nomination of the president of General Electric, Jeffrey Immelt, as the chairman of the Council on Jobs and Competitiveness, followed by the arrival of former JP Morgan Chase executive William Daley at the White House as chief of staff, as well as the speech expected the following month at the Chamber of Commerce — still very critical of presidential policies — and the announcement of a possible wave of deregulation: These are a number of approaches seeming to indicate a clear recentralization of American politics (at the risk of alienating a part of the liberal base and the unions).

This also corresponds to an intention to redefine the terms of the national debate around the economic recovery. The president’s speech, revolving around quality and growth, will be spread across themes of innovation, education, reducing the budget deficit and reform of the state. The big challenge for this second presidential mandate party, with good reason, is the spiral of debt in which the American state seems to be trapped.

Indeed, in 2010, the federal budget deficit, which represents around nine percent of GDP, is one of the highest in the country’s history, while the federal public debt is close to 62 percent, and global debt (incorporating the debts of all levels of governments, states and municipalities) has reached 110 percent. It’s not therefore by chance that the Republican Paul Ryan was chosen to respond to Obama: this experimental congressman, president of the Chamber’s budget committee, embodies this urgency and will to make public finances the spearhead of Republican legislators –—notably in anticipation of 2012.

2012 Presidential Elections

The consensus that resulted from the Tucson killings will come to light this evening in the placement of congressmen in the Capitol: Indeed, some have chosen, contrary to customs, to jump the starting line to get to a seat with their opponents. And yet, this bipartisan attitude could help things for Barack Obama, whom the majority of Americans believe will be less inclined than Republicans to feed the partisan quarrels. (Quinnipiac University Polling Institute)

It’s an image that the president has decided to develop by moving his headquarters — a first in modern electoral history — to Illinois in order to deploy 2007–2008 campaign veterans (like David Axelrod and Robert Gibbs): He will govern in Washington while campaigning in Chicago. This political schizophrenia allows the president to keep out of the fray while the right seems branded by the deleterious climate that has prevailed throughout the legislative campaign last November, culminating in the Tucson killings.

Even though Republicans were asked to wait to campaign, President Obama has not been left behind. While the first caucus takes place Feb. 16 2012, and the New Hampshire primary will take place the following week on Feb. 24, the “primary season,” that is to say the year over the course of which the potential candidates prepare themselves and gather funds, has already begun.

The fact that it has begun earlier than usual reveals two facts. On one hand, Obama wants to profit from a more favorable atmosphere: A slim majority of Americans would be happy today to grant him a second mandate (a real turnaround compared to last November). On the other hand, it acknowledges the Republican repositioning following the Tucson shootings and the Sarah Palin eclipse. In New Hampshire this weekend, the state’s Republican Party cast an indicative vote (traditionally representative of things to come); Mitt Romney placed first with 36 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 11 percent and Sarah Palin with seven percent.

Re-convincing to Win

So 2012 will be a watermark for the State of the Union address. The head of state will express himself while remaining above the political arena, knowing that everything is a matter of perception. It is in fact the feeling that the economy was improving (with a higher unemployment rate than the United States is currently experiencing) that ushered in the re-election of Ronald Reagan in 1984. At a time when 54 percent of Americans seem to believe once again in economic recovery, Obama will have to find the right tone, because everything is more a question of style than political reality.

Of course, the Republican majority in the House of Representatives could have learnt from its mistakes in 1994 and give up their “extremist attitude” that engulfed Newt Gingrich in favor of President Clinton: John Boehner might want to move more subtly. However, Obama has formidable tools at his disposal to get around the opposition: a majority in the Senate, his veto power, presidential decrees and the autonomous freedom of governmental agencies. Above all, his State of the Union address must therefore be convincing.

Furthermore, it is the style of the president, his capacity to show his leadership and his “emotional” link with the nation that will make the difference. The distance between Obama and the people, noticeable during the BP crisis in the Gulf of Mexico, has been damaging for him. While restructuring his presidential team, looking for new advisers and calling on “veterans” from the Clinton administration, he attempts to benefit from the economic momentum. The “Houdini” moment will not be enough, however, and he must now (re)capture his powers of persuasion with the electorate.