America’s “Buddies” Collapsing!

This is Friday. In Cairo and Alexandria, the masses look unstoppable and streets uncontrollable. Will the Egyptian autocrat Husni Mubarak flee the country? Not likely for now, because nothing is that easy in Egypt, a country with a lot of experience in crisis situations. But it is not impossible altogether either.

People chanting, “Gamal, take your dad with you too as you leave,” called out for a massive rebellion all over the country today. All political opposition groups responded positively to the call. Can thousands of people make it to the streets despite the extraordinary security measures? What happens if they do? If a rebellion takes place in Egypt, a revolution in the aftermath of it could have far more repercussions than the Iranian Revolution. From Central and North Africa to the Iranian border, it could shake the whole region and all countries within it. We will then get to know what a “domino effect” is really like. However, it is important not to rush to conclusions and not to say what is not likely. But at the same time, could people’s accumulated anger, the resentment against gross policies that have tarnished the honor of the Arab-Islamic world, the courage and the boost that the events in Tunisia gave to our streets, and most importantly, the timing, lead to a surprising end?

Why not!? The silence amid the latest events in Tunisia could have fed the situation in Egypt. Everything is possible at this point. It should not be premature to expect a surprising outcome in Egypt when the Mubarak regime is at its lowest strength and at a time when regional security issues are all about Israel’s security priorities. But again, on the other hand we need to be reminded that there have been previous rebellions in Egypt, and they were severely suppressed by the Mubarak regime.

Then there are three possibilities: First, demonstrations and mass rallies go on for a while. Egyptian-style security measures are taken, thousands of people get arrested and tens of people die, but eventually protests are suppressed. Such harsh measures get supported by the U.S. and the West. Second, people’s rage gets either frozen or tamed. A soft transition to post-Mubarak era occurs. Or, third, the rebellion grows, and with the participation of all political groups, all Egyptian cities are rolled into action. The Mubarak regime collapses, heralding a new epoch of democracy and freedom in Egypt. If the current situation began only for reasons specific to Egypt’s circumstances, and there was no wave moving across North Africa and the Middle East, the third alternative could not be possible. But strangely enough, this wave has swept the whole region and no country may have the power to keep themselves out of it.

Are there planners behind all of this? It is unfortunately hard to say, though Western actors and political groups operating under the banner of civil society institutions are not on the front line like they were in the velvet revolutions in Eastern Europe. The possibility of an invisible hand behind these events will always be questioned, but an argument along the lines of “the U.S. is removing old regimes” does not overlap with the realities. We need to know that there is a difference between someone utilizing a movement that actually operates with its own internal dynamics and another case where a movement or wave is catalyzed by someone else outside. What is happening now in the Middle East is that America’s “buddies” are collapsing one by one. They did in Lebanon and Tunisia, and now in Egypt and Yemen, masses rise against America’s friends. All the leaders and regimes that are corrupt and ruthless, yet friends to America, are the targets here. Hence, it would be an utter mistake to attribute these possibly historic events to American instigation.

This is Friday, and Egypt and other countries will witness demonstrations and protests. No one knows what happens from here on out; even the targeted regimes do not know. A change in Egypt might transform many things in the region; transformation in the region will trigger global power shifts in an unprecedented way. Most of the traditional actors in the region and beyond might lose sway while new ones might emerge. And then this shall be a transformation of the century. If only it happens …