What Will Japan Aim for After the Shuttle?

The American space shuttle program will completely shut down with the Atlantis, which is currently in flight.

In the 30 years since the first flight in 1981, the world’s manned space development has relied on the shuttle program. Seven people from Japan have embarked and learned manned space flight technology from the Americans. However, how will they use this technology? The direction of Japanese space development after the shuttle is unclear.

The 30 years of the shuttle program cycled between the embodiment of the dream of space travel and tragic accidents with a constant battle over costs. The shuttle was developed as a general-purpose machine that would be able to transport man-made satellites or space laboratories frequently at a low cost, but practically every time the shuttle returned, careful maintenance was needed and the frequency of the trips did not increase.

A total of 14 astronauts perished in two large accidents, and there was a long suspension of flights. In total, 135 flights took place with four shuttles. One flight costs on average approximately $1 billion (about 80 billion yen). NASA’s goal of a low cost means of transportation was quite far off.

For the past number of years, we have given our attention to the transportation of goods and personnel to the International Space Station. If there were no space shuttle, the station would certainly not exist. The discontinuation of the shuttle is “the end of an era.” (Astronaut Kouichi Wakata)

The discontinuation of the shuttle means that America has, for the time being, lost its means to transport people into space and will have to rely on the Russian Soyuz. The Obama administration has turned over development and implementation of the next generation shuttlecraft to the private sector and assigned NASA to investigate Mars as its major long-term goal. China has independently achieved a manned flight. Space development is multipolar and, as diversification progresses, the framework of international cooperation will change.

How will our country make the best use of the technology and experience it has gained through participation in the shuttle program and space station? The government has only casually discussed this.

The diverse purposes of space development range from ensuring safety, investigating resources and preventing disasters. However, we don’t have the leverage to progress in things like manned-flights or space explorations like Hayabusa [“Falcon” in Japanese]. The government’s Headquarters for Space Development Strategy needs to show the way to overcome the bureaucratic barriers, but has not yet fulfilled its role.

At this critical juncture of the shuttle discontinuation, it is time for Japan to reaffirm the purpose and significance of the investment in space development. There is a need to thoroughly discuss how to deal with prioritization from here on out.