Diplomatic Negotiations Will Remain Stuck Even After Deal with Iran

Yesterday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated his statements against the Iranian agreement with six world powers, referring to it as a “bad deal” and reiterating that he will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.

The new leader of the Labor party, Isaac “Buji” Herzog, finally presented the opposing thesis. He suggested that Netanyahu should let the situation settle down. Moreover, he dared to argue that the U.S.-led agreement had some positive points to it and he mainly pleaded with Netanyahu to stop constantly fighting with President Obama and digging holes in the U.S. Congress and Senate.

President Obama himself called the prime minister two days ago. After everything that has happened between those two over the past couple of months with regards to Iran and Syria, it is hard to think of the conversation as being friendly, but they did decide to send a team headed by the Israeli national security adviser, Yossi Cohen, to help shape the final agreement. It is obvious to everyone that Israel walked away from the scene badly beaten: Not only did they agree to a deal that they consider to be a disaster, it also strained relations with their biggest ally.

Now we need to examine the ramifications for the faltering negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. On this matter, there are two theories amongst politicians. The first, which is the more widely accepted, is that the United States will not strike another blow against Israel with the Palestinian situation as they did with the recent Iranian deal. There are limits. According to a high level official, “No one here wants to create a strategic crisis. No one here wants to go over the edge.” According to this thesis, Secretary of State John Kerry, another of Netanyahu’s assailants, will adopt a much more conciliatory approach this time.

According to the second thesis, the situation with Iran will do little to calm the almost missionary zeal John Kerry has for accomplishing a peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Kerry will continue to apply pressure wherever he sees fit, even if people here think of him as an unfair mediator. Maybe Kerry will even add some of his blatant anger toward Netanyahu to this diplomatic obsession.

The deciding factor between the two is the odds of the game. According to a minister who requested to remain anonymous, “Everyone knows, even Minister of Justice Tzipi Livni, that nothing will come from these negotiations. There will be no progress, even if there is a cosmetic change here and there. There will be no bridging of the gap between the two sides because of the Palestinian position.” In other words: No masterful effort by Kerry will prevail here, regardless of what happened in Iran.