Congressional Rancor Toward China Likely To Rise

U.S. Republicans won handily in the Nov. 4 midterm elections, regaining control of the Senate and taking simultaneous hold of both houses of Congress for the first time in eight years. Barack Obama is now a “lame duck” president through and through, marking an enormous shift in the political climate of the United States. However, the blow from this pales compared to the prospect of the presidency itself changing hands between the two parties.

The one to suffer the most will be Obama himself. The midterm elections can indeed be viewed as a referendum on his executive accomplishments; having lost the faith of most Americans, he will find his final two years in office far more limiting.

Americans have chosen a Congress that is entirely at odds with the president, and history has shown that within even the American pinnacle of Western-style democracy, overcoming such an obstacle is nothing short of a Herculean feat. It is unlikely that the U.S. will be able to pass any policies of consequence in the coming two years, and the stage is set in Washington for a fierce battle between the president and Congress in anticipation of the new round of elections quickly approaching. The next steps in the U.S. political scene will be well-worth watching.

In issues relating to China, the U.S. Congress will very likely take on a rather more acrimonious tone. It has always been the foremost agent within the U.S. leading the call for action against China, and in times when it has been aligned against the president, that call has only become more strident. This is because any excess of anti-presidential zeal can easily spill over into prodding directed at China.

However, this style of American political drama is one that China is well acquainted with. China has no need to be overly concerned with the changing senatorial climate, as it has already weathered far larger U.S. political storms. And of the consequences ensuing from the midterm elections, the emergence of new variables within China-U.S. relations will certainly not be counted among the largest.

Next to Obama, Hillary Clinton may be the one with most cause to worry about the results. She is widely predicted to be the Democratic Party’s candidate in the next general election and is considered a front-runner by the mainstream American media, which see a victory for her as a very real possibility. But with the Democratic Party having been soundly rebuffed due to Obama, any Democratic candidate will inevitably suffer by association to some extent.

Past U.S. elections have shown that when an incumbent president is not seeking re-election, the party that comes out ahead during the midterm elections wins the subsequent presidential race a majority of the time. The GOP will rally in a big way from winning this midterm election. Although for the time being it lacks a captain with the influence to match Hillary Clinton, it can pocket something even more valuable in the weight of popular support.

At a time when the U.S. is in need of political resolve to spur domestic reform, its system continues to waste most of the country’s political resources on interparty sparring. As to whether this unhurried legislative pace is a point of pride or resigned chagrin for the country, Americans themselves are of many a mind.

On the other side of the Pacific, China’s reforms have been sweeping and decisive, casting a starkly different image to that of the United States. There are those unswerving in their belief that their own nation’s course is the proper one in both countries, but also some who are more admiring of the opposite political system. The answer to this thoroughly complex debate will come in time.

For now, the U.S. will not see any decisive transformations occur, which may very well be an opportunity for those nations with the capacity to change. China should be just such a nation. The U.S. will be unhappy with any Chinese departure from the status quo and will seek to utilize the power currently at its disposal to outmaneuver China, as it has in the past. Pressure on China will increase, but the standing system in Washington will not necessarily encourage rapid changes in its China policy. As long as we do not go out of our way to provoke it, there will exist a certain degree of inertia, even as the U.S. debates its relationship with China and minor incidents surface.

Obama’s “pivot to Asia” strategy has been a series of headaches for China, but looking both forward and backward, his overall model of foreign policy can be counted as relatively moderate. This is simply what “moderate” views toward China look like, a realization that can be used as a practical yardstick for measuring China-U.S. relations — and make no mistake, those relations are likely to sour for a time. They may not necessarily spoil entirely, but will most certainly leave a bad taste in the mouth.