Dynastic Games Around the White House: A New Bush-Clinton Duel Expected in 2016

The United States is becoming a country of political dynasties. With the appearance in the presidential campaign of the first “candidate to be a candidate” — ex-governor of Florida Republican Jeb Bush – experts are predicting a duel against former first lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the event of [Jeb Bush’s] victory in the Republican primaries. The outcome of such a race is difficult to predict in light of the similarity between the two candidates, who, according to the press, look at each other as if through a mirror.

On Tuesday, Jeb Bush announced on social networks Twitter and Facebook that he will “actively explore the possibility of running for President of the United States” in 2016. The vagueness of the formulation was chosen in order to avoid, for now, the formal requirements mandated under federal election law. The decision was made on Thanksgiving Day, when the entire family, according to Bush, was gathered behind the family table, watching football and talking about the future of America. Bush also announced the formation in January of a political action committee — this is the traditional name in the U.S. for the organizations that are formed by candidates for fundraising.

Jeb Bush is the representative of a large dynasty of politicians: His father and brother were presidents, his grandfather, Prescott, was a senator, and his son, George, last month was elected to the post of land commissioner in Texas. If Jeb wins the Republican primaries, his Democratic opponent will almost certainly be Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state and wife of former President Bill Clinton — Hillary herself, thus, a representative of a political dynasty. She will most likely take part in the campaign, and she isn’t expected to have any serious rivals in the primaries. And then the Bush-Clinton duel, remembered from 1992, will be repeated in a different form.

“The likelihood of a 2016 presidential race between Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton is becoming more and more evident,” argues Edward Lozansky, president of the American University in Moscow. “If in Hillary’s case everything has been clear for a while, there were doubts about Bush until recently. Regarding the term ‘dynasty,’ it can only be applied to the Bushes. In their family are bankers, two senators, two presidents, one of whom was vice- president under Ronald Reagan — one of the most popular presidents in American history. The Clinton dynasty as such does not exist for now, and hardly will appear, judging by the origin and composition of their family.”

Immediately after Jeb’s announcement, the American press was filled with speculations about this possible scenario. Some don’t like it because it is reminiscent of family showdowns, which might not necessarily be hostile. Clinton every summer loves to visit the Bushes in Maine; George W. Bush called his predecessor his “brother from a different mother,” and Hillary his “sister in law.” Others fear the corrosion of American democracy on account of the dynastic trend. “Another Clinton versus another Bush? Political vomit,” moaned writer and activist Brent Bozell.

For politicians, a well-known name is both an enormous asset, thanks to which it is easier to gather supporters and financial resources, as well as a heavy obligation to carry the burdens of responsibility for the actions of one’s predecessors. George W. Bush said that he’d inherited one half of his father’s friends and all of his enemies. According to surveys, about 50 percent of respondents do not believe that Jeb and Hillary will bring new policies or ideas, nor will they move the country out of the past. The least rosy perspective on the Bush-Clinton duel is held by the younger generation, bored by the “good, old classics;” therefore turnout in such an election would likely be low.

One can’t forget that in the Republican Party, Jeb will have many serious rivals. Among them, it is assumed, will be New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Marco Rubio, Barack Obama’s second opponent Mitt Romney, and representing the right wing of the party, Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz. “It’s great that George W. Bush and Bill Clinton and the Bush and Clinton families get along so well these days, but the Republican party’s base is not going to entrust the task of beating Hillary Clinton to her metaphorical brother-in-law,” writes conservative blogger Jim Geraghty, continuing to play up the theme of “kinship” of two representatives of competing clans.

Who would win the Bush-Clinton duel, if it comes to that? “Clinton, by a lot,” according to the Christian Science Monitor, relying on a survey, which gives Hillary 43 percent to Jeb’s 37 percent. Cruz sees a problem in the fact that Jeb is a political moderate, liberal on the questions of immigration and education. “If we nominate another candidate in the mold of a Bob Dole or a John McCain or a Mitt Romney — and let me be clear, all three of those men, they’re good men, they’re honorable men, they’re decent men, they’re men of character, they’re war heroes — but what they did didn’t work,” the senator told the publication Politico.

Lozansky, on the other hand, sees Jeb as exactly that candidate who can defeat Hillary. “Jeb’s main shortcoming is the track record of his brother George, who is in the running for the dubious distinction of being one of the worst U.S. presidents,” the expert observed in a conversation with Nezavisimaya Gazeta. “However, the merits of his father, George H.W. Bush, and the entire Bush dynasty will more than likely overcome this shortcoming. In my opinion, Jeb is capable of beating Hillary because despite her popularity,to a large degree, she divides more than unites the nation. Besides that, she drags behind her a chain of scandals and skeletons in the closet, which will immediately resurface once the race begins.”