Stories of Peace and War

Historically, war and peace in Europe were interlocked with the success or failure of the balance of power among mainly France, the German federal states, Russia and the United Kingdom.

The occasional weak links in this chain joined forces through alliance agreements to counterbalance the more powerful ones. These alliances were stipulated and dissolved according to the diversification of power among them, something which was used as a tool for preventing expansion in Europe of the most powerful state concerned. Since the 17th century, these political practices, which constituted the great picture of European history, seemed more like pawn moves on a chessboard. The policy makers’ wrong or awkward moves each time resulted in creating irreconcilable imbalance, leading to a new “Great War” in Europe.

The political landscape changed by the end of World War II, when Europe, which was completely devastated, was divided, and the West was brought into the U.S. sphere of interest, while the East entered the USSR’s sphere of interest.

This political scene totally changed later with the collapse of the Soviet Union, at which point Eastern Europe integrated into the Western structures, institutions and mechanisms. The Ukraine issue is nothing less than an issue of the West’s penetration limits in the East: namely, the U.S.-Russia conflict concerning European Union and NATO limits and therefore the U.S. zone of influence expansion against what Russia considers its own vital interests.

On the other hand, redefinition of territorial limits is evidently putting a great strain on bilateral relations, in a broader respect, as a result of concern on the U.S. side in regard to increasing Russian power and influence on the international political scene, while Russia is challenging U.S. global hegemony in the international system.

Although the recent Minsk ceasefire agreement for the Ukraine crisis has not resolved the overall issue for good, as political and military issues have remained unresolved, it has been recorded as a success of the French-German initiative to find a political, nonmilitary solution to the conflict.

Segregation was becoming increasingly evident, mainly in the EU. Although the French-German initiative developed with the full cooperation and in consultation with Washington, it is indicative of both countries’ attempt to avoid another Cold War between the U.S. and Russia on European soil.

In fact, taking into consideration the existing political circumstances and the correlation of powers among the USA, Russia and Europe, not to mention those existing in Europe itself, it is understood that Germany is playing a key role in defusing the American-Russian crisis concerning the Ukraine issue.

Angela Merkel is aware of it and surely of German diplomacy’s historical inherent weaknesses in taking the proper role.

However, having unresolved issues on all fronts, regarding the Cyprus issue and lately in the matter of energy security, but also at a point in time when the neighboring Middle East is up in flames and being rezoned, Cyprus has every reason not to wish for the return of a Cold War climate in U.S.-Russian relations.

Polarization between West and East – the U.S. and Russia – will create a situation where Cyprus finds itself facing the same quandaries it faced during the ’60s and ’70s, as has been proven by recent experience in the United Nations Security Council.