Apple’s Martingale

Past successes do not automatically guard against future failures. As Apple launches its latest technology, the skeptics are predicting a quick and inglorious flop for this digital watch. Too expensive, not useful enough, needs to be recharged often, Apple’s latest gadget will fail like Google Glass, glasses introduced by the king of search engines. Apple’s admirers have a different reading and instead predict a tidal wave.

It’s certainly difficult to say whether the pessimists or the optimists will be right, but considering the work that has been done and that this is already a key technological event of 2015, you have to note that Apple has, a priori, a greater chance of winning its bet than losing it. The resounding success of the iPod, iPhone and iPad proves that, for the past 15 years, Apple has had the capacity to turn whatever it touches into gold. The Cupertino firm, which has perfectly mastered design as well as materials and software, has shown that it doesn’t need to be an outstanding inventor of concepts, but that it has been consistently better than those who cleared the way for a new market before them. Apple’s watch won’t be the first e-watch, but the California company will do everything to ensure that it will be, at least at its launch, the best.

Perfectionist and prudent, the group forged by Steve Jobs also refuses to diversify. They sell just a few things and only broaden what they offer when they are sure of themselves. Certainly the Newton — the first tablet launched in 1993 — failed, but Apple resisted the temptation to launch a TV like some suspected it would and, in fact, didn’t propose a single new product family for five years. If Apple is storming the market with its watches today, it’s because the group led by Tim Cook needs sources of growth, but also certainly because they feel ready. Over the years, with its patient upmarket strategy, Apple has become the luxury group of “tech,” with an incredible brand image, an unparalleled network of its own shops and exceptional “pricing power.” This further enhances this launch’s chances of success.

To achieve customer buy-in, Apple knows that it won’t be enough to deliver a perfect product. It’s also necessary for an ecosystem to develop around this invention. This watch will cease to be just a gadget the day that the new services it offers — which are left partly to the imagination — become as indispensable to us as our smartphones. Even if it is confident, Apple is taking a risk today. But when you are the richest company in the world, you have to take on new challenges. Especially because, even if Apple hasn’t necessarily won every time, it doesn’t have much to lose.