War and Peace at Camp David

Outside the United States, Camp David evokes more than simply the American president’s country residence. It is the place, one feels, where treaties that can change the world are signed. Isn’t that what the accord between Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin was? This week, Barack Obama wants to repeat the feat.

The summit will be colorful, but less rich in symbolism than the famous talks in September 1978, when for the first time an Arab leader made peace with an Israeli one. The stakes at the heart of these discussions will, however, go considerably beyond what the Egyptians and Israelis agreed to 37 years ago.

The American president has taken on the challenge of convincing the six leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council member states — Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and above all Saudi Arabia — that his flirtation with Iran in no way compromises their alliance.

They are still shaken by the agreement in principle on the Iranian nuclear program. The Obama government presents this as the best guarantee that Tehran will not develop atomic weapons, but the countries on the other side of the Persian Gulf see it more as clearing the runway for the rapid takeoff of the Iranian nuclear program.

Buying Peace

So, Barack Obama will host sheiks and other emirs for a supper at the White House on Wednesday, followed by a long day in the country at Camp David. He will try to extol the virtues of his agreement with Iran, but also to promise to help them to protect themselves against this worrying larger neighbor.

Barack Obama will encourage the development of a regional defense system, but the Arab rulers have their own lists in their pockets. They want armaments, and they want lots of them: drones, surveillance equipment, anti-missile missiles and, the cherry on the cake, combat aircraft, particularly the brand new and highly sophisticated F-35.

As tempted as he may be to give them everything they want in order to buy their compliance, if not their approval, the American president will never give them as much as he supplies to Israel. Congress, where blind love for the Hebrew state ravages hearts, will not allow its little Mediterranean ally to be threatened one day by American military hardware which should have been used for other purposes.

Selling War

Be that as it may, if they do not buy from the Americans, the emirs will stock up elsewhere. From the French, for instance, who just have been quite happy to sell the Qataris 24 Rafale fighter planes for $8.5 billion.

Note that the Iranians, not at all fools, have had S-300 anti-aircraft missiles delivered by the Russians. In short, “military aid” comes from all over the place and Barack Obama, with the aim of stabilizing the region, risks contributing to increasing its militarization.

In any case, it is highly likely that despite the smiles and civilities, everything will end in disappointment. The Gulf monarchies want the United States to appease Iran, contribute to the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Washington would rather pivot to Asia and leave behind the quagmire that is the Middle East. I fear that even the bucolic scenery of Camp David will change nothing.

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The Five Leading Arms Buyers

1. India

2. China

3. Pakistan

4. United Arab Emirates

5. Saudi Arabia

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The Five Leading Arms Sellers

1. United States

2. Russia

3. Germany

4. China

5. France