Clueless in the White House

It’s apparent in the political DNA of many Washington big shots — including those big shot wannabes — that “God’s own country” is convinced by its global aspirations and its ability to solve any and every problem. But the problem of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria refuses to be solved from outside. Barack Obama’s ability to solve that problem for the artificial nation of Iraq and the Syrian democratic opposition is limited.

While it is true that the United States remains the strongest nation in the world by far, militarily, that’s not enough to wage wars such as those in the Middle East and to win them as well. Regardless of that fact, many politicians cling to a rhetoric that has long since ceased to be credible. President Obama, caught in a failed policy tangle begun by his predecessor George W. Bush, can no longer explain how he might possibly “degrade and ultimately destroy” the self-described Islamic State group. The White House wants to at least stop the Islamic State group from acquiring further territory. One day after the fall of Ramadi to Islamic State forces on May 17, Obama assured the world that Ramadi was merely a strategic “setback.”

Meanwhile, the Republican presidential wannabes crow about Obama’s strategic blunders. Rhetorically, it’s become like the Wild West out there. “We will look for you. We will find you. And we will kill you,” threatened Senator and presidential candidate Marco Rubio. Meanwhile, his rival Rick Santorum has stated that the Islamic State group must be bombed “back to the 7th century.” Real estate mogul Donald Trump assures the world that he has a definitive plan to defeat the Islamic State group but can’t disclose what it is just now. Senator John McCain, currently not a Republican presidential candidate, is still courted by the media as a wise statesman. He says the Islamic State group has it in for the United States. “They are a cancer and that cancer will spread unless it is checked,” McCain said, referring to the Islamic State group. He added a strategy was needed, but Republicans had no suggestions other than to send an additional 10,000 soldiers to Iraq.

A year has passed since Obama’s keynote speech at West Point Military Academy where he made his most definitive comments about deploying U.S. troops: “Here’s my bottom line: America must always lead on the world stage. If we don’t, no one else will. The military that you have joined is and always will be the backbone of that leadership. But U.S. military action cannot be the only — or even primary — component of our leadership in every instance.” He also noted that from a historical point of view the greatest errors have not come from hesitating to use military force but rather “from our willingness to rush into military adventures without thinking through the consequences — without building international support and legitimacy for our action.”

No Fighting Spirit

That was no peace offering, it was more of a reality check. In February, Obama had sent a bill to Congress asking for authorization to use military force against Islamic State forces. His intention is to have the authorization in advance just in case it is needed to combat Islamic State forces and the president wants the authorization to apply globally. The U.S. is already reported to have flown at least 3,000 aerial missions attacking Islamic State forces in Iraq and Syria. In addition, unmanned drone reconnaissance missions and attacks have also been used. There are at least 3,000 military advisers supporting the Iraqi national army and an unknown number of elite troops of the Special Operations Force said to be active — mobile, flexible and combat ready — often killing clandestinely.

But that probably won’t continue. Obama has no intention of being dragged into an expanded war by the Islamic State and its propaganda. The Iraqi military doesn’t trust the U.S. government in any case: After the fall of Ramadi, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter publicly said that Iraqi soldiers had shown “no will to fight.”

Given all that, America’s interests are still tricky for other reasons. While the Iraqis appreciate the help of Iran’s militias they hesitate to accept them as allies. The rulers of Saudi Arabia have long suspiciously viewed U.S. overtures to Iran which simultaneously supports the Syrian government against the Islamic State. Saudi Arabia also leads a military coalition of several Gulf monarchies involved in a war in Yemen against the Iranian-supported Houthi movement. Obama has been trying to juggle this conflict of interests for months. Top priority is preserving the Iraqi nation and prohibiting its collapse. General Ray Odierno, U.S. Army chief of staff, has said that the president is considering sending more trainers in and even possibly deploying them to the battlefield alongside Iraqi troops. Odierno was quick to add, “I absolutely would not agree to, right now, putting U.S. forces on the ground. I don’t believe it would be helpful,” As late as February there was talk of attacking Islamic State forces occupying the city of Mosul since June 2014. No further mention of such plans has been made.

Prioritizing Interests

A conference was held in late May in Tampa’s Florida Convention Center, entitled the Special Operations Forces Industry Conference. It was a defense industry exposition tailored for Special Operations Forces elite units. Three hundred and forty companies had products on display ranging from portable DNA analysis equipment to mobile power generators. According to the organizer’s website, Airbus was also represented, along with the German weapons manufacturer Heckler & Koch. The motto for the event was “Winning in a complex world.”

According to media reports, Iraq was the decisive issue, replacing the previously decisive issue of Afghanistan. Chief of the U.S. Special Operations Command, General Joseph Votel, described the situation saying his people were “operating in possibly the most complex strategic environment in recent history.” He said they were encountering an “incredible eruption” in foreign-fighter flow into the Middle East from all over the world supporting the Islamic State group and its affiliates, increasing connections between transnational criminal organizations and violent extremist groups, and causing Islamic State-inspired flare ups in Africa and Asia.

The time when the USA could reliably predict the outcome of such a conflict is over. Obama first must determine where U.S. interests lie. The White House needn’t try to decide which “values” or humanitarian motives those who need the help should have. It’s something governments must do.