Trump: When the Nightmare Becomes a Reality
Published in Liberation
(France) on 21 February 2016
by Frédéric Autran (link to original)
(France) on 21 February 2016
by Frédéric Autran (link to original)
Translated from
by Sophie Thresher.
Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
After winning the South Carolina primary on Saturday, it appears that nothing can stop the New York billionaire from gaining the Republican nomination for U.S. president despite his thundering racist and sexist declarations.
History is on his side. No other candidate has won the Republican nomination without winning either the New Hampshire or South Carolina primaries. Over the course of less than two weeks, Donald Trump has won both by a large margin over his closest opponents. From now on, there is no room for doubt: The New York billionaire could represent the conservative side in the presidential election on Nov. 8. On Saturday, in the first Southern state to voice its opinions in this long primary process, the real estate magnate duplicated his New Hampshire performance by imposing himself on almost all categories of voters: men and women, conservatives and moderates, Republicans and independents. Aside from 17 to 29-year-olds who narrowly preferred Ted Cruz, Trump came out on top in all the age brackets. When it comes to education level, only voters with Ph.D.s rejected him, in favor of Marco Rubio. With his discourse against the system, Trump seduces all the fringes of the Republican electorate, even if he receives widest support among a white, non-university-educated population.
’Mexican Rapists’
Tired of listening to talk about economic recovery without feeling the concrete effects of it, this group of middle-class white people subscribes to Trump’s radical message, which promises to “make America great again” by deporting millions of illegal immigrants and shaking up the Washington elite. The exit polls from South Carolina on Saturday demonstrate both the exasperation of the conservative voters and the hope they place in Trump to respond to this. Among the 48 percent of voters who want a president who does not represent the establishment, 63 percent voted for the billionaire. As for the 40 percent of voters who are angry with the way the federal government functions, 44 percent supported the New Yorker. While this escapes all logic and context, the latter allows himself attacks and provocations that would be fatal for any other candidate.
Yet so far, it seems that nothing he says has an impact on him: not his attacks on “Mexican rapists,” nor his calls to ban Muslims from entering the United States, nor his insulting imitation of a disabled journalist. Last week, Trump launched a verbal attack on George W. Bush, accusing him of lying about the Iraq war and of not knowing how to prevent Sept. 11. This was a dangerous attack to launch in South Carolina, a state where many servicemen and veterans live, and where the Bush family remains very popular. We all know the result.
The real estate magnate, who came in second place in Iowa and was the victor in New Hampshire and South Carolina, continues to benefit from the scattering of votes due to a large number of other candidates. Even after Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey, and Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, ended their campaigns, six candidates were still in line for Saturday’s primary. This allowed Trump to succeed, and battle to victory for the 50 delegates in play, winning at least a third of the votes (32.5 percent). Those of us at the heart of the party’s establishment still want to believe that Marco Rubio will be a credible alternative to the billionaire. The young Florida senator could certainly benefit from his former mentor, Jeb Bush, but he peaked at 5 percent in the national surveys. This was not enough to change the situation, which Rubio must face along with the ultraconservative Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who had been solidly ahead. As for the moderate governor of Ohio, John Kasich, he seems determined to stay in for the rest of the primaries until March 8. This runs the risk of helping Trump strengthen his head start. “Absolutely everyone has to get behind Marco Rubio pretty much right now to effect this sudden and overwhelming counter-revolution,” writes the conservative historian Timothy Stanley.
’Fantastic’
Trump demonstrates confidence. In front of an enthusiastic crowd on Saturday, he made fun of the “geniuses” on television, the pundits who said, 'Well, if a couple of the other candidates dropped out — if you add their scores together, it's going to equal Trump!... They don't understand that as people drop out, I'm going to get a lot of those votes also.” In his typical manner of speaking, the billionaire stated that he felt confident about his performance in Nevada on Tuesday (“We’re going to be fantastic”) and for Super Tuesday on March 1, when 10 states will vote on the same day (“We're going to do very, very well.”)
Strengthened by his results in the first three ballots and his solid advance in the national surveys, Trump seems more and more convinced that he will win the nomination. Some of his declarations elsewhere indicate that he is preparing for a duel with Hillary Clinton in November. His energetic criticism of George W. Bush and the Iraq war is an example of this. He knows that in 2003, Hillary Clinton, who was still a New York senator, supported American intervention, for which her Democratic rival, Bernie Sanders, reproaches her regularly. Surprisingly, this is not the only subject on which Sanders and Trump are in agreement. Like the Vermont senator, the billionaire opposes the free trade agreement, which runs contrary to Republican ultraliberal orthodoxy. Over the last few weeks, Trump’s opponents in the primary, with Ted Cruz at their head, have relentlessly criticized him for his lack of conservatism, criticism which, for the time being, has been in vain.
Is the Republican race already a done deal? This extraordinary election campaign sounds a note of caution. Currently, only 4 percent of the delegates responsible for nominating the Republican candidate outside of the party’s convention have been determined. Super Tuesday should provide the opportunity to see it more clearly, when almost 600 delegates (more than a quarter of the total) will be allocated. On The Hill website, Niall Stanage notes, “If Trump’s candidacy does not come apart at the seams within the next 10 days — and there is no reason to expect that it will do so, given the number of storms it has weathered to date — it is increasingly difficult to see how any of his rivals will stop him from becoming the party’s standard-bearer.”
Coming Soon: Super Tuesday
Four states have begun the presidential primary season: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. The next votes take place in the Republican caucus in Nevada on Tuesday, then the Democratic primary in South Carolina on Saturday. On March 1, on Super Tuesday, the primaries will take place in a number of Southern states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia) as well as in Massachusetts, Minnesota, Vermont and Colorado. After a few other primaries, the other big vote this month will be on March 15, with primaries in several large states (Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina). New York will vote on April 19 and California on June 7.
History is on his side. No other candidate has won the Republican nomination without winning either the New Hampshire or South Carolina primaries. Over the course of less than two weeks, Donald Trump has won both by a large margin over his closest opponents. From now on, there is no room for doubt: The New York billionaire could represent the conservative side in the presidential election on Nov. 8. On Saturday, in the first Southern state to voice its opinions in this long primary process, the real estate magnate duplicated his New Hampshire performance by imposing himself on almost all categories of voters: men and women, conservatives and moderates, Republicans and independents. Aside from 17 to 29-year-olds who narrowly preferred Ted Cruz, Trump came out on top in all the age brackets. When it comes to education level, only voters with Ph.D.s rejected him, in favor of Marco Rubio. With his discourse against the system, Trump seduces all the fringes of the Republican electorate, even if he receives widest support among a white, non-university-educated population.
’Mexican Rapists’
Tired of listening to talk about economic recovery without feeling the concrete effects of it, this group of middle-class white people subscribes to Trump’s radical message, which promises to “make America great again” by deporting millions of illegal immigrants and shaking up the Washington elite. The exit polls from South Carolina on Saturday demonstrate both the exasperation of the conservative voters and the hope they place in Trump to respond to this. Among the 48 percent of voters who want a president who does not represent the establishment, 63 percent voted for the billionaire. As for the 40 percent of voters who are angry with the way the federal government functions, 44 percent supported the New Yorker. While this escapes all logic and context, the latter allows himself attacks and provocations that would be fatal for any other candidate.
Yet so far, it seems that nothing he says has an impact on him: not his attacks on “Mexican rapists,” nor his calls to ban Muslims from entering the United States, nor his insulting imitation of a disabled journalist. Last week, Trump launched a verbal attack on George W. Bush, accusing him of lying about the Iraq war and of not knowing how to prevent Sept. 11. This was a dangerous attack to launch in South Carolina, a state where many servicemen and veterans live, and where the Bush family remains very popular. We all know the result.
The real estate magnate, who came in second place in Iowa and was the victor in New Hampshire and South Carolina, continues to benefit from the scattering of votes due to a large number of other candidates. Even after Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey, and Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, ended their campaigns, six candidates were still in line for Saturday’s primary. This allowed Trump to succeed, and battle to victory for the 50 delegates in play, winning at least a third of the votes (32.5 percent). Those of us at the heart of the party’s establishment still want to believe that Marco Rubio will be a credible alternative to the billionaire. The young Florida senator could certainly benefit from his former mentor, Jeb Bush, but he peaked at 5 percent in the national surveys. This was not enough to change the situation, which Rubio must face along with the ultraconservative Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who had been solidly ahead. As for the moderate governor of Ohio, John Kasich, he seems determined to stay in for the rest of the primaries until March 8. This runs the risk of helping Trump strengthen his head start. “Absolutely everyone has to get behind Marco Rubio pretty much right now to effect this sudden and overwhelming counter-revolution,” writes the conservative historian Timothy Stanley.
’Fantastic’
Trump demonstrates confidence. In front of an enthusiastic crowd on Saturday, he made fun of the “geniuses” on television, the pundits who said, 'Well, if a couple of the other candidates dropped out — if you add their scores together, it's going to equal Trump!... They don't understand that as people drop out, I'm going to get a lot of those votes also.” In his typical manner of speaking, the billionaire stated that he felt confident about his performance in Nevada on Tuesday (“We’re going to be fantastic”) and for Super Tuesday on March 1, when 10 states will vote on the same day (“We're going to do very, very well.”)
Strengthened by his results in the first three ballots and his solid advance in the national surveys, Trump seems more and more convinced that he will win the nomination. Some of his declarations elsewhere indicate that he is preparing for a duel with Hillary Clinton in November. His energetic criticism of George W. Bush and the Iraq war is an example of this. He knows that in 2003, Hillary Clinton, who was still a New York senator, supported American intervention, for which her Democratic rival, Bernie Sanders, reproaches her regularly. Surprisingly, this is not the only subject on which Sanders and Trump are in agreement. Like the Vermont senator, the billionaire opposes the free trade agreement, which runs contrary to Republican ultraliberal orthodoxy. Over the last few weeks, Trump’s opponents in the primary, with Ted Cruz at their head, have relentlessly criticized him for his lack of conservatism, criticism which, for the time being, has been in vain.
Is the Republican race already a done deal? This extraordinary election campaign sounds a note of caution. Currently, only 4 percent of the delegates responsible for nominating the Republican candidate outside of the party’s convention have been determined. Super Tuesday should provide the opportunity to see it more clearly, when almost 600 delegates (more than a quarter of the total) will be allocated. On The Hill website, Niall Stanage notes, “If Trump’s candidacy does not come apart at the seams within the next 10 days — and there is no reason to expect that it will do so, given the number of storms it has weathered to date — it is increasingly difficult to see how any of his rivals will stop him from becoming the party’s standard-bearer.”
Coming Soon: Super Tuesday
Four states have begun the presidential primary season: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. The next votes take place in the Republican caucus in Nevada on Tuesday, then the Democratic primary in South Carolina on Saturday. On March 1, on Super Tuesday, the primaries will take place in a number of Southern states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia) as well as in Massachusetts, Minnesota, Vermont and Colorado. After a few other primaries, the other big vote this month will be on March 15, with primaries in several large states (Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina). New York will vote on April 19 and California on June 7.
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