American and European Strikes Will Continue Whether or Not a Government Is Formed

Libyan political analyst Mohammad Al-Abidi says that airstrikes in Sabratha have been long anticipated, and that this city is a prime candidate for these kinds of operations, as it is considered a haven for Islamic State group contingents.

Al-Abidi thinks that American, French and European plans of this kind have been in place for some time, and when the opportunity came to target the man known as Noureddine Chouchane they put those plans into action.* To the Americans and Europeans, the skies over Libya are open.

Al-Abidi explained that this operation could be seen from two perspectives. It either represents the beginning of a Western military intervention in Libya, or it is a series of distinct raids with specific aims. In general, the West does not wait for any agreement on its plans with Al-Siraj’s Libyan government, which has dragged its feet. The specific time frame for operations of this sort is spontaneous, and these raids will continue whether a government is formed or not.

On the spread of the Islamic State group in Libya, Al-Abidi said, “There are two points of view: There are those who defend Sabratha and consider it to be neither haven nor home to terrorists, and this view comes from the people of Sabratha’s fears that they will be subjected to these sorts of attacks. In another view, Sabratha is seen as a stronghold close to Tarablus, Tunis, and the coast. What is happening now hits at the very core of the fight against the IS group, and therefore these operations — which began at dawn last Friday — are not going to stop.”

Al-Abidi added that Daesh (an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State group) is centered in Surt, Sabratha and Derna, but that most of its fighters are foreigners and as such do not have the popular support to foster their growth, as occurred in Syria and Iraq. They are also not able to take control of populated, contiguous areas. Their havens are found only in isolated, desert areas in central Libya. And their contingents have only taken refuge in these areas by exploiting the political and security vacuum that exists in the center of Libya. He went on to say that all of the terrorist groups centered in Syria and Iraq have no doubt attempted to relocate following coalition airstrikes, indicating that the West may turn the area into a trap to hunt down terrorist leaders, as occurred last Friday.

Consequences for Neighboring Countries

Al-Abidi remarked that the danger falls upon Libyans, neighboring countries, and Europeans alike. Libya will become a hotbed of expansive military operations following this incursion, and the confused and bumbling political scene in Libya signals that things may get out of control. This is what frightens the true nationalist forces in Libya that do not want to see a loss of Libyan sovereignty.

As for the political scene, Al-Abidi stated that what comes out of parliament’s meeting this week, and their questioning of the leader of the Presidential Council, with its potential to bestow — or not bestow — confidence upon the Al-Siraj government, will clarify the situation. Our correspondent also believes that a recurrence of the Syrian scenario in Libya is unlikely, because objective facts on the ground are nonexistent, and the situation is different. He thinks that it will be easy to deal with these groups in Libya, because they are found in isolated areas in the desert and the people have not embraced them or fostered their growth, as Al-Abidi mentioned earlier. And there is absolute approval among the people, and a readiness among the youth, to fight for the sake of ridding the country of these terrorist groups. The sole barrier, according to our correspondent, is the messiness of the political arena, which results in the flaw of the lack of an organized military with sufficient weapons and training. Al-Abidi thinks that if the international community could lift the ban on a Libyan military, things would be easier. He affirmed that Libya does not need a foreign intervention to fight terrorism, considering that 90 percent of these fighters are foreigners and not Libyan. Instead, they need the necessary training, weapons and supplies to cleanse their country of these terrorist groups.

*Editor’s Note: Noureddine Chouchane is a suspected Tunisian Islamic State group militant who may have been killed during a Feb. 19 U.S. airstrike.