Trump’s Foreign Policy: Chaos or Technique?

Donald Trump won the election in part because he promised to return the white working class without higher education to a standard of living that supposedly had been lost due to free trade agreements and the greed or indifference of the financial and political elites. Trump’s campaign alluded to other countries, whether they be allies or rivals/enemies, as he considered their commercial surplus with the U.S. (China, Mexico, Vietnam), their supposed manipulation of money (China, Germany), or their abuse of the protective defense umbrella provided by U.S. forces (Japan, Korea, European allies of NATO), and as it fit the narrative, that the world benefits from the kindness of the leading power.

He promised to end the Islamic State. As a matter of fact, Trump didn’t formulate a defense and security policy before arriving at the White House. His vision for international relations downplays the alliances and multilateral institutions and gambles with bilateral negotiations. To solicit China’s support to end North Korea’s nuclear program, Trump withdrew his accusation that Beijing manipulated the exchange rate—which brings on the imposition of fines.

Trump was aware that the criticism he threw at U.S. allies would agitate the political establishment of his country. To ease tensions, he named the prestigious General James Mattis as secretary of defense. Mattis was the commander of U.S. Central Command, the geographic area of which encompasses northern Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia. The new president sent his vice president and Secretary of State Tillerson to Europe and Asia to assure U.S. allies that he will keep his commitment with NATO.

The dismissal of his national security advisor, Michael Flynn, for not revealing his contacts with the Russian embassy offered Trump the opportunity to replace him with Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, another serviceman famous for his courage, intellect and for questioning his superiors. Even though Trump voters reject military adventures, the president found himself forced to launch 59 missiles against a Syrian army air base that used sarin gas to kill more than 100 civilians.

Bargaining Tactics

After various missile tests since January by Iran and North Korea, the indifference coming from Washington could be interpreted as weakness. It was unanimously praised throughout the U.S. and by its allies. Trump bragged to reporters about not revealing his intentions, and the insults launched towards both friends and enemies are often a bargaining tactic. Trump’s ambiguity is calculated, as is his desire to rely on competing centers of power. But in regards to delicate military matters, Trump follows the advice of Mattis and McMaster, although Mattis frequently contradicts the president. Many dislike the unpredictability that Trump can create, but only time will tell if it is an effective strategy.