Make America 1929 Again

During his election campaign, Donald Trump would not stop his big talk about China, which he blamed for all problems, especially those which were detrimental to American interests due to unfair trade practices. However, one year after he was elected, it is against his closest allies – namely Canada and Europe – that Trump lashes out, maintaining a vague and troublesome silence regarding China.

Though he hasn’t hesitated to treat China like the bad guy on countless occasions, on May 31, Trump announced that, effective immediately and unilaterally, he was imposing a 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum coming from these countries, products which represent a substantial volume of imports valued at $23 billion per year.

Should age-old allies be treated like competitors or adversaries? What is the logic that underpins Trump’s aberrant decision, which irreparably alienates his closest partners, which nevertheless would have been able to prove themselves as necessary helpers in a trade war against China? Beyond the uncertain economic consequences for this country which could experience a decline due to a resurgence of inflationary pressure and an increase in unemployment, the U.S. will without doubt increasingly lose international influence. The protectionism that was established in 1928 was the cause of the Great Depression. Let’s remember the Republican Party of that era, which hoped to support “certain industries which cannot now successfully compete with foreign producers because of lower foreign wages and a lower cost of living,” and the Hawley-Smoot law enacted in June 1930, which toughened tariffs from 39 percent to 53 percent on a number of imports.

These considerations are of little importance to Trump, whose sole motivation seems to be of a political nature. He is indifferent to the economic reasoning which clearly predicts job losses will follow these punitive expeditions. They are intended to demonstrate to globalization’s losers and to workers insecure in their own country that he is worried about people like them, that he hasn’t forgotten them. It is obvious that it is these omitted social classes who will pay most dearly for these recent measures, but they have convinced themselves that their president will defend their interests. Regardless of the consequences with respect to international relations, even if the United States is summoned before the World Trade Organization, and at the price of lost confidence with Europe, which would have harmful and potentially long-lasting effects, the fact is the president of the United States has decreed a total trade war.

Without a doubt, Trump’s objective is to upend the world order, as he has convinced himself that he’ll come out the winner. Remember his tweet from last March 2 that triggered hostilities: “Trade wars are good, and easy to win.”