Crisis between Erdogan and Trump: NATO at Risk

The story begins last July 11 and 12 at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Brussels when President Donald Trump, insulting and hostile toward his Western European peers, opened up with extreme politeness to Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly stating, “I like this guy,” and giving rise to the suspicion that the rapport came from understanding each other’s personality and political stances. However, things are very different one month later after confrontation and bravado has wiped away the kind words of the recent past.

The shift came as a result of the Turkish court’s refusal to release Andrew Brunson, a U.S. pastor, who has been imprisoned since 2016 on charges of espionage and terrorism connected to the failed coup earlier that year and also of collusion with one of the bitterest enemies of the Erdogan regime – the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party known as the PKK. Trump’s reaction and that of Vice President Mike Pence was to threaten sanctions which, effectively, were decided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury three days prior. The first step was to freeze assets of Turkish interior and justice ministers that may be held in the U.S., which was seen as a bad sign for markets and sank the Turkish lira even lower than it was already. Turkey was also threatened with the suspension of loans from international financial institutions.

But the remaining question that jeopardizes not only Turkey, but the operation of NATO itself — of which both countries are members — is the possibility of canceling the sale of almost 100 F-35 fighter jets Washington is due to supply Ankara as part of the military effort on missions in Afghanistan. In other words, this measure could affect NATO defense strategy and would be seen as acquiescing to Vladimir Putin and regional Russian interests. On the other hand, hanging in the air is the possibility that Russia could supply Turkey with the S-400 defense system, which would disrupt operation of the NATO military apparatus, itself on a tightrope due to the troubled relationship Trump has developed with his European allies.

The difficulty of getting out of this mess is that for both Washington and Ankara, the issue has become an issue of national pride, since Erdogan responded with threats of his own sanctions against the United States. Both sides have gone too far out on a ledge to turn back now. It will not be until Oct. 12, when the next court hearing to review the Brunson case is scheduled, that his possible release could return things back to normal.

This means that in the two months remaining until the hearing, the complicated situation will continue for the characters in this drama: Turkey, which is likely to suffer additional economic damage due to sanctions in addition to damage already inflicted; NATO, which faces a challenge due to the substantial modifications to Turkey’s military apparatus; and lastly, the United States, which may resent any important advancement of Russian regional interests if Putin decides to back Turkey through the supply of the S-400 defense system. Additionally, escalation of the crisis cannot be ruled out should it come to the point, as recommended by some radical Turkish voices, of suspending American use of the Turkish military base in Incirlik, out of which the U.S. operates with respect to its intervention in Syria. On the other hand, it is possible that, given the sudden lurches and unpredictable personalities of Trump and Erdogan, either one could surprise us with a retraction, since steady consistency has, by all accounts, not been one of their defining traits.