2020 and Trump’s Fuel

Predictions, especially about the future, are difficult, warned the Danish winner of the Nobel Prize in physics. So, in this last column of the year, I will limit myself to suggesting what we should set our sights on in 2020; to speculating if the uncertain geostrategic equilibrium we find ourselves in will continue or come to pass. United States citizens hold the key to the next 12 months. On Nov. 3, they’ll decide if we’ll have Donald Trump 2.0 or if his chaotic presidency and bizarre behavior have been a four-year transient mishap, damaging, but reparable.

As a unipolar world is now a thing of the past, attention will undoubtedly gravitate to the strong presence of China, which recently announced, with false modesty, that in 2020 it would finally achieve a “moderately prosperous society.” Its commercial, economic, military and technological power also pose a challenge to the United States superpower, which is wrapped up in itself, and to Europe. When faced with the example of the Chinese system of state capitalism and single party rule, the democratic liberal order and capitalist economy are not necessarily an undisputed beacon of light. Xi Jinping and China have the strategic patience that the U.S. lacks on their side.

We are mindful also of Europe, sandwiched between U.S. and Chinese spheres of influence. Losing the United Kingdom, Europe is now calling on new leaders determined to carry the geostrategic weight that the population and its gross domestic product should be able to handle. We are aware of the end of Angela Merkel’s era in Germany, and of the threat to the German export economy, particularly in the automotive industry, thanks to punitive tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. There is Emmanuel Macron attempting to become the spokesperson for a Europe with a global policy and a single unified defense, able to incorporate Russia into its security architecture.

A bad election (i.e., the 2016 election in the U.S.) can only be saved by a good one in 2020. Now the Senate’s removal of Trump from office feels just as unlikely as the apparition of human beings beyond our galaxy. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the one responsible for the impeachment of the president, warned that impeachment should have been bipartisan, based on unquestionable accusations of such gravity that it would sway the majority of public opinion, criteria that “Ukrainegate” doesn’t meet. The predictable failure in January will work against the Democrats, strengthening Trump’s reelection chances.

The Democratic primaries support left-wing progressivism, which the majority of the country rejects. “Socialism, hate of… the USA,” according to Trump. Criticism of a feverish presidency, and a president who takes pleasure in lying, slips past him and misses his electoral base. Why is Trump’s reelection possible? Because 76% of the country thinks that the economy is doing well, as opposed to the 48% who thought so when he was elected in 2016. Those in the minority believe, slowly but surely, that half the country is accepting the unacceptable. Next fall could deliver the fuel for Trump 2.0. Watch out.