The name Alan Dershowitz is associated with one of the 20th century’s most surprising and controversial verdicts: the acquittal of the former American football star O.J. Simpson, charged with the murder of his ex-wife and her boyfriend.
The famous constitutionalist is involved once again in a momentous trial − that of Donald Trump – and the outcome of it is unlikely to surprise anyone. Barring a series of unexpected twists, the Republican majority in the Senate is going to acquit the White House commander-in-chief of the two charges leveled against him. Yet, as the third presidential impeachment proceeding is set to get underway, uncertainty hovers over both its procedure and its political consequences.
Witnesses?
The issue of witnesses is one of the biggest question marks at play. The Democrats are calling for four witnesses, including former White House National Security Advisor John Bolton and the acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney. Both men were in direct contact with the president during the Ukrainian affair.
The support of at least four Republican senators is needed for these witnesses to appear. Among the most likely to vote with the Democrats on this question are Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Susan Collins (Maine), Cory Gardner (Colorado), Mitt Romney (Utah) and Lamar Alexander (Tennessee).
However, Republican Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Rand Paul (Kentucky) have warned their fellow Republicans that should they give the green light to the witnesses called by the Democrats, they have witnesses of their own to call, including Hunter Biden and the Ukrainian affair whistleblower.
A vote on the issue of witnesses should be taken after the first (and possibly final) steps of the impeachment process, in order to know what the cases for the prosecution and the defense will be, with questions from senators to follow.
The length of the cases and questions make up the subjects to be debated and put to a vote on Tuesday. If all goes according to plan, the case for the prosecution will be put forward on Wednesday.
New Information
Democratic prosecutors made their case public on Saturday. In a 106-page document, they go back over the main points of the charges put forward by the House of Representatives in December. They accuse the president of offering an invitation to the White House and $391 million in military aid to Ukraine in exchange for the Ukrainian president announcing an inquest into Joe Biden, candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination. They also castigate the president for refusing to cooperate with Congress’s investigation into this alleged abuse of power.
Democratic prosecutors are also making progress on new information that could have important repercussions at trial. They refer to documents recently provided by Lev Parnas, an associate of Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani. In interviews with the media, the businessman, originally from the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, claimed that the president was aware of all secret actions carried out for political purposes in Ukraine.
Prosecutors also intend to bring up the conclusions made in a new report from the Government Accountability Office, a nonpartisan government agency, which claims that the White House broke federal law by freezing congressionally approved military aid to Ukraine.
On Saturday, Trump’s lawyers responded to the prosecutors’ case with an inflammatory six-page letter in which they call the impeachment process against the president a “brazen and unlawful attempt to overturn the results of the 2016 election and interfere with the 2020 election.” They have until midday to present their own case.
The Iowa Caucus
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would like the trial to last no longer than two weeks, hoping, like Trump, that the president will have been duly acquitted by the time he gives his State of the Union address on Feb. 4.
Nothing could be less certain.
What is certain is that four of the candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination will be detained in Washington in the two weeks ahead of the Iowa caucus, the first test in their race. They are Sens. Bernie Sanders (Vermont), Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts), Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota) and Michael Bennett (Colorado).
This setback has given rise to a conspiracy theory that Trump has been happy to spread over Twitter: that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi delayed the start of the impeachment trial in order to hinder Sanders and help Biden. “They are rigging the election again against Bernie Sanders,” the president tweeted, making references to “Crazy Nancy” and her Democratic allies.
The senator for Vermont has rejected the theory. But the absence of four candidates in Iowa on the eve of an important vote adds to the uncertainty in an extremely tight race.
After the Verdict
And how could a possible acquittal benefit Trump? An impeachment inquiry and indictment has not hugely affected his support among the electorate, although the proceedings have been effective in terms of soliciting donations from his supporters.
After the acquittal verdict, the president will surely not hesitate to declare himself “100%” not guilty. This message will serve him well not only among the Republican base but with some independent voters, too. But the vote of one single Republican senator in favor of his guilt could knock it off course.
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